The 4% "Solution?"

A recent white paper has garnered a lot of discussion by casting “shade” on a traditional premise about retirement plan withdrawals.

The premise—a so-called “rule of thumb[i]”—isn’t all that old, actually; it dates back only to 1994, when financial planner William Bengen[ii] claimed that over every rolling 30-year time horizon since 1926, retirees holding a portfolio that consisted 50% of stocks and 50% of fixed-income securities could have safely withdrawn an annual amount equal to 4% of their original assets, adjusted for inflation without… running out of money. 

That said, even though it was predicated on a number of assumptions that might not be true in the real world—a 30-year withdrawal period, a 50/50 portfolio mix of stocks and bonds, assumptions about inflation—oh, and a schedule of withdrawals unaltered by life’s changing circumstances (not to mention a 90% probability of success)—a recent Morningstar paper challenged its conclusions in view of “current conditions.”

The controversy, if it warrants that name, was that Morningstar said that 4% might no longer be “feasible”—that there might be a better number—more specifically that the “confluence of low starting yields on bonds and equity valuations that are high relative to historical norms, retirees are unlikely to receive returns that match those of the past”—and thus, “using forward-looking estimates for investment performance and inflation,” the Morningstar authors said that the standard rule of thumb should be lowered to 3.3% from 4%. 

Said another way, your retirement savings likely won’t last as long as you might have thought they would, and with surging inflation in the headlines, that conclusion certainly engendered a lot of media attention.

Now, in fairness, the paper states at the outset that they are not recommending a withdrawal rate of 3.3%, which they characterize as “conservative.” How so? Well, they note that it is based on four factors: 

1. a time horizon that exceeds most retirees’ expected life spans; 
2. it fully adjusts all withdrawals for the effect of inflation; 
3. it does not react to changes in the investment markets; and 
4. it’s based on a “high projected success rate”—90%.

Moreover—and significantly, despite the ensuing headlines of other publications—they explain that “by adjusting one or more of those levers, current retirees can safely withdraw a significantly higher amount that the 3.3% initial projection might suggest.”

Now, there’s been plenty of evidence—both empirical and anecdotal—that retirement “spends” aren’t nice, even streams. Life’s circumstances change, of course—and our health care, and health care costs, are notoriously variable. There’s a sense that the pace of spending earlier in retirement is more like that anticipated in most retirement education brochures—travelling and such—but that pace slows down as we do. 

In fact, I remember my one and only conversation with my father about retirement income. He had already decided to quit working, and had gathered his assorted papers regarding his savings, insurance, etc. for me to review. Determined to “dazzle” Dad with my years of accumulated financial acumen, I proceeded to outline an impressive array of options that offered different degrees of security and opportunities for growth, the pros and cons of annuities, and how best to integrate it all with his Social Security.

And yet, when I was all done, he looked over all the materials I had spread out before him, then turned to me and said—“So how much will I have to live on each month?”

At its core, once you stipulate certain assumptions about the length of retirement, portfolio mix/returns, and inflation, a guideline like the 4% “rule” is really just a mathematical exercise. A 4% “rule” may be simplistic, but it’s also simple—and when it comes to getting your arms around complex financial concepts and distant future events, there’s something to be said for that. 

But looking for a 4% ”solution” is arguably looking to solve the wrong problem.  

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i] And the origins of that phrase are likely different from what you’ve been told—see https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/rule-of-thumb.html.

[ii] Who, interestingly enough, opined earlier this year that it might now be a 4.5% rule…