A recent op-ed[i] in The Wall Street Journal explored the potential implications—“What ‘Rothifying’ 401(k)s Would Mean for Retirees”— (subscription required), though the focus is on tax policy as well.
You’ll remember that so-called “Rothification”—essentially the elimination of the pre-tax treatment currently accorded 401(k) contributions—was quite the controversial issue back in 2017 when the Republican-controlled House of Representatives was looking for ways to raise revenue to help pay for tax cuts.[ii] And while it’s not been an active focus of late, it seems likely to resurface as the nation’s budget deficit widens, and the field of 2020 presidential aspirants seem determined to find ways to spend more or, in the case of the incumbent, collect less in taxes.
‘Out’ Comes
As for the WSJ treatment, I’ll spare you the short read (longer if you actually check out the 36-page paper it was based upon), and summarize it thusly: later retirements (not by choice, but of necessity), less retirement income, and more wealth inequality. Though, at least in the short run, more tax revenue for Uncle Sam.[iii]
Now most of this comes from a key assumption; as the WSJ piece puts it, “Over their lifetimes, workers would accumulate one-third less in their 401(k)s under a Roth system. This is because, with no tax advantage from contributing to a 401(k), workers would save less and those lower contributions would earn less over the years.”
Said another way, without the tax break, the authors conclude that workers won’t save as much, and saving less means that they’ll have less invested, and that means that they’ll have less retirement income. They also argue that, with Rothified savings, workers would tap into Social Security later—a year later, on average, they claim. They note that with their retirement savings already taxed, wealthier individuals would be inclined to defer taking Social Security (increasing their benefit), widening income inequality.[iv]
‘Less’ on Plan?
The concern about mandatory Rothification was always that workers would, in fact, save less—and this is a concern that employers have expressed, though this was in the context of the ability to save on a pre-tax basis being taken away. That, in turn, seems to be predicated on the notion that workers have a specific dollar amount in mind that they can afford to save, and that if some of that certain dollar amount goes to taxes, there is a dollar-for-dollar offset. Doubtless that’s true for some, particularly among lower-income workers. However, when I have seen savings data, what seems to be the norm is that individuals save a specific percentage of pay, one generally driven either by what’s necessary to earn the employer match, or perhaps that rate at which default contributions are set. In other words, people choose to save 3% of pay, not $50/paycheck.
Now, if that perception is accurate (feel free to disagree in the comments below if you see things differently), then it seems to me that most individuals might actually save the same amount, regardless of whether it’s pre- or post-tax. And if they were to same at the same rate (and admittedly that’s a big “if”), their retirement outcome might actually be more secure—because withdrawals (and taxation) wouldn’t be forced on them by RMD calculations, because they wouldn’t have to worry about those contributions—and the earnings that have accumulated on those contributions—being taxed, and, significantly, because the reduction in taxable income wouldn’t undermine (through “means testing”) Social Security benefits.
But key to the analysis is how participants would respond, and the study cited in the WSJ isn’t the only academic consideration on the subject; one in 2015 found no change in savings rates with a voluntary addition of a Roth feature, and in 2017, the non-partisan Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) found that it might help—or hurt—retirement security—and this is key—depending on the response of participants.
It appears that more participants are being presented with that option. Nearly 70% of plans now provide a Roth 401(k) option, according to the most recent survey by the Plan Sponsor Council of America. Perhaps more significantly, that survey, reporting 2018 plan activity, finds that nearly a quarter of participants (23%) elected to contribute to a Roth when given the opportunity, up from 19.5% in 2017 and 18.1% in 2016—an increase of nearly 30% in just three years.
Academic studies notwithstanding, it’s worth remembering that retirement security isn’t just a matter of how much you have saved at retirement; it’s how much you have available to spend throughout retirement.
- Nevin E. Adams, JD
[i]The
authors of the WSJ article, Olivia S. Mitchell and Raimond Maurer,
previously authored a research paper upon which the WSJ piece was based
(albeit with a slightly different title, “How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality?”).
[ii]They weren’t, however, the first to propose such a shift. President Obama did so in 2015.
[iii]However, the authors state that the taxes collected on withdrawals of that money exceed the amount of additional income taxes that would be collected during people’s working lives under Rothification.
[iv]As a side note, the authors in the WSJ article note that not only would this be bad for Social Security funding, but they also conclude that the taxes collected on withdrawals would exceed the amount of additional income taxes that would be collected during people’s working lives under Rothification—ostensibly because of their previous assumption that it would be a larger accumulation of money to be taxed.
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