Friday, September 09, 2022

(What Is) The Most Important Retirement Number

 What’s the most important number when it comes to retirement?

Once upon a time it might have been considered to be “65”—that traditional age for retirement—but even though it’s the default in many retirement calculators, until recently it hadn’t even been the most common age for actual retirement. Heck, it’s not even “good enough” for full Social Security benefits these days.[i] 

Perhaps a more precise focus number in retirement planning is the one that purports to provide some level of financial security in retirement[ii]—indeed, some years back there was a commercial that prompted folks to determine their “number”—a reference to a financial result that was deemed necessary to “retire the way you want” (and perhaps when you want, though that wasn’t part of the “pitch”).

But while that was (and is) “A” number, in order to get to it, for it to have any semblance of actually fulfilling that promise (premise?), you had to first get to several other numbers; how long you expected to live in retirement is a big one—and one dependent on another number, the age at which you planned/hoped to retire—not to mention how much you expected to need in order to live in retirement.  And that, generally, if somewhat unartfully, is typically considered to be dependent on yet another number—a percentage of the amount you lived on PRE-retirementall of which might well turn out to be dependent on yet another number—the financial resources available to you. And that likely turns out to be a product of several other numbers—personal savings, pensions, Social Security—and yes, that’s even more math, as those often depend on other…numbers, as they are impacted by markets, taxes, drawdown rates, etc... 

Little wonder that surveys show that so many haven’t made even a single attempt to make that retirement readiness assessment—and that includes “guessing” at it.

Well, for my money (literally) there may not be one single most important number about retirement, but if you’re ever going to have decent shot at achieving a modicum of the peace of mind that long-term financial security provides, you need to have at least a sense of things, a reality “check” if you will. To that end, the Plan Sponsor Council of America’s annual 401(k) Day[iii] education campaign is a great place to start in terms of pulling together the numbers that will both tell you how much you need—as well as the all-important how much you have—to do the math, to—in the words of this year’s 401(k) Day campaign—“know your numbers.”[iv]

Let’s face it, if that most important number is when can you afford to retire—or at least to not have to rely on a regular paycheck—well, it may feel like you need a crystal ball—but you’ll have a better shot at accurately predicting that future if you start with some sense of not only where you want to be (and when), but where you are. 

So, whether you’ve never done “the math”—or done it a zillion times—this 401(k) Day it’s worth taking another look—to make sure things (still) add up—and to do that, you first need to know the numbers—your numbers—the most important number of all. 

- Nevin E. Adams, JD 

[ii] Though these days I suppose that is more accurately described as that point in life when you no longer depend on a regular paycheck. 

[iii] For the past several years, the day after Labor Day has been designated 401(k) Day (yes, there’s a tie-in with labor/workers, but just as significantly, the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) was signed into law by then-President Ford on the day after Labor Day in 1974).

[iv] For plan sponsors[iv]—and those who support their efforts—the campaign also brings forth some important numbers about the retirement plan that has been, and will likely continue to be, such an integral component of the financing of those longer-term goals and aspirations. Significantly, along with benchmarking resources like PSCA’s Annual Survey of Profit-Sharing and 401(k) Plans, it can also help you assess how your plan and plan design matches up against—well, the “competition.”

Saturday, September 03, 2022

‘Standing,’ Still

Our industry has long fretted over how 401(k) participants will respond to volatile markets. And perhaps not surprisingly, these days the headlines are, generally speaking, full of “stay the course” assurances.   

That said, as recently as a month ago the headlines—even OUR headlines read things like “Light 401(k) Trades in July Even as Wall Street Posts Strong Month, Hot July Brought Cool 401(k) Traders, July Brings Much-Needed Calm to 401k Trading Activity, 401(k) Trading Light in July Despite Market Gains.” As though this is a surprising result.

In fact, as long as I can remember, our industry (or at least its headline writers) has long been somewhat amazed that participants have been as “resilient” in the face of volatile markets as they have—consistently—been over time. We’ve rationalized that ostensibly rational behavior in different ways, at different times. In 1987 (before there was daily trading in 401(k)s) it was said that the markets had come back before participants (via those once-a-quarter transfer windows) had a chance to respond. In 2001-2002, we told ourselves that our brilliant education programs (not to mention the ubiquitous “stay the course” messages) had an impact. In 2007-2008, we comforted ourselves with the notion that there was nowhere (else) to go (granted, that wasn’t really comforting).

Today—though it’s not really mentioned—I’d like to believe that it has something to do with the shift to professional asset allocation products[i]; target-date funds and managed accounts. After all, haven’t we told participants that the purpose of these platforms was to leave the business of investing to the professionals?

But whatever rationale we may want to apply, the reality has always been that there’s not much trading activity in 401(k) accounts, even during periods of extreme volatility and concern. This is routinely borne out by annual reports from Vanguard and Fidelity, and more frequently tracked (on a monthly basis) by Alight[ii]. Inevitably the commentary commends those who “stay the course,” because those who do transfer monies tend to “lock in” their losses, selling low and buying high. Those who do transfer serve as cautionary tales—perhaps even reassuring the participants who, once again, failed to do anything.      

The reality is that participants, generally speaking, aren’t really qualified to make these kind of investment decisions, particularly during periods of extreme volatility. Let’s face it, even the best self-directed investors typically have a day job that doesn’t allow the time or inclination to keep up with the markets, or the trends that underlie them (not to mention that some of those great investing ideas at 10:00 AM fade by the time that fund trading actually occurs at the market close). The advent of daily valuation allowed us to make quick, if not always wise, decisions—but, thankfully, most don’t. 

The bottom line is that while the counsel provided participants during times like these is generally “stay the course”—that counsel is valid only if the course you’re on was correct in the first place. 

  - Nevin E. Adams, JD

[i] Indeed, Vanguard notes that in 2021, only 3% of all pure target-date fund investors made an exchange, a rate nearly five times lower than all other investors.

[ii] The Alight 401(k) index recorded 7.5 times normal trading on Feb. 22 as Russian troops massed near the Ukraine border, 2.9 times normal trading the next day, and 6 times normal trading on Feb. 24 when the invasion began.  But “normal” is “when the net daily movement of participants’ balances, as a percent of total 401(k) balances within the Alight Solutions 401(k) Index™, equals between 0.3 times and 1.5 times the average daily net activity of the preceding 12 months.” Vanguard’s assessment of 2021 activity is that only 8% of participants traded, and just 4.3% did in 2022 (through June 30) while Fidelity says just 5% did (and 85% of those only did so once). Principal reported 2.44% traded, according to a MarketWatch report.