The 'Cutting' Edge?

Are employers necessary for a successful retirement system? A new proposal suggests that their role be “jettisoned.”

Not one to simply “bash” the 401(k), and to his credit, Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler, who recently opined that the 401(k) had outlived its usefulness,[i] now offers an alternative that he considers to be a superior alternative, something he titles “the New American Retirement Plan.” Despite the shortfalls his previous column attributed to the 401(k), this proposal in most of its elements seems relatively modest, at least structurally. It’s (basically – in 25 words or less), a national DC plan for all employers, probably with mandatory employee contributions, no requirement for employer contributions, and tighter restrictions on withdrawals.[ii]
Make no mistake, though – the devil, and there’s mischief aplenty here – lies in the details.

Rekenthaler’s basic premise – one that he describes not only as “the first,” but the “most important” step – is to “jettison the employer’s responsibilities,” noting that “expecting companies to sponsor retirement plans is like demanding that a dog dance; it may comply, but neither well nor happily. Companies run businesses. That is what they are created to do.”

I get it. How much simpler would business be if you, as an employer, didn’t have to worry about the cost, aggravation, and yes – liability – associated with providing benefits? But let’s set aside for a moment the impact that benefits clearly have, in terms of not only job choice, but job retention.[iii] Let’s turn our attention to a program already in existence that, as Rekenthaler suggests, “jettisons” the employer’s responsibilities. Specifically, let’s consider for a moment the OregonSaves program – the longest running, and arguably quite successful – state-run programs for private sector workers. Two years in, and admittedly absorbing a part of the workforce – smaller businesses – that is perhaps lower paid, and less tenured – that program has a participation rate of approximately 70%, and an average deferral of 5.5%. 

Now, that’s 70% better than the participation rate of those individuals previously, and that 5.5% saved is almost certainly an improvement from the 0% these workers were likely setting aside from retirement before the advent of the program. Those results, however, pale in comparison with those reported in the 62^nd annual Plan Sponsor Council of America (PSCA) 401(k) survey. We’re talking record high contribution rates of 12.2% (5.2% of that from employers, by the way) and opt-out rates of generally less than 5%, compared to the 27% or so in the state-run program. 

And yet while Rekenthaler’s initial premise regarding the 401(k)’s “expiration” claims the current system has failed to deliver on its promise, here there’s not even an attempt to quantify what this “new” approach would produce in terms of retirement income adequacy, nor any notion of what level of mandatory employee contributions might be required to offset the loss of employer contributions. Could an unmandated employee contribution-only account produce “enough?”
Rekenthaler leaves open for “discussion” whether employee participation should, in fact, be mandatory, or mandatory only up to a certain level, and whether there should be a voluntary employer match or not. But adequacy of retirement funding isn’t even mentioned.

Despite the concerns raised (and acknowledged in a subsequent post) regarding the adequacy of the current system, he seems content to put forth a program he considers to be superior in design, apparently assuming it would also produce superior, if not sufficient, results – leaving it to the rest of us to work out – and presumably live with – the details.

Indeed, with as many opportunities for misuse, abuse, and underuse as the current voluntary system contains, it’s nothing short of amazing just how successful it has been in helping provide, in conjunction with Social Security and personal savings, the prospects for a financially secure retirement, nurtured by select tax incentives and bounded in by nondiscrimination rules and eligibility tests.

Sure, there’s still room for improvements in the current system – but mostly it seems to me that the problem with the current system seems to be that there’s not “enough” of it. As for the wisdom of cutting the support of employers from the current system – well, that seems to me like cutting off your nose to spite your face…

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i]His columns are generally thoughtful and thought-provoking, his perspectives rational and well-reasoned, his commentary nearly always not only interesting, but entertaining. But on this one – well, let’s just say we disagree.

[ii]As for leakage – well, Rekenthaler’s solution there is a simple one: “Forget tax penalties; they do not sufficiently deter foolishness. Instead, ban early withdrawals outright. After all, retirement-plan investors receive a benefit from the government for deferring taxes. It is only fair that they give something back.” Only consider for a moment – if you knew as a matter of course when the money was being automatically deducted from your paycheck that you would never again be able to access it for anything pre-retirement – how might that affect your  opt-out decision? (My guess is you’d hold back some, if not all.)

[iii]Not to mention the widespread availability and applicability of Social Security, which, though technically an insurance, not an account-based program, ostensibly already has many of the attributes Rekenthaler prizes, while drawing 12.4% of all wages up through $137.700/year.

Has the 401(k) Passed its ‘Expiration Date’?

That’s the premise behind a recent column by Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler, who writes that “the plans are as good as they can be under the current framework – and that's not good enough.”

I had the pleasure of meeting John a number of years back – and I’ve been keeping up with his writing ever since. His columns are thoughtful and thought-provoking, his perspectives rational and well-reasoned, his commentary nearly always not only interesting, but entertaining. But on this one – well, let’s just say we disagree.

John acknowledges that his views on the 401(k) have “evolved,” and that while he has long been in the camp that called for improvements in the current system, a “defender” of the 401(k) – but now, apparently, he’s calling for an “overhaul.”

‘Leaky’ Assumptions

He doesn’t fault the current system for its perceived shortcomings; he notes that the 401(k) wasn’t designed to be a solution for the general public’s retirement, saw the growth in the 1980s and 1990s as “modest,” and while he apparently saw the advent of automated design solutions as “solving half the country’s problems,” that confidence seems to have been shaken by a couple of academic studies. And that’s where things begin to get shaky.

“Whether auto-enrolled or not, leakage from 401(k) accounts, caused by early withdrawals, is substantial,” he writes, going on to cite one paper that “shows for households under the age of 55, average 401(k) outflows equal 40% of the inflows. Another study, by Laibson's co-researcher Beshears, estimates that, within the first four years, 25% of the benefits of automated-enrollment programs are consumed by early withdrawals.”


Now, John’s not the first to have logic waylaid by respected academics. One of these “studies” got picked up in the Wall Street Journal back in 2018. I encourage you to revisit my analysis of that survey at your leisure, but here’s the salient part(s): this study is based on activity at a single firm. One. Granted, it’s described as a large (approximately 7,500-participant), Fortune 500 financial services firm – but it’s one that even the researchers concede has high turnover. It’s also, based on the salary information provided, one with relatively modest income workers. However, even with those impediments, automatic enrollment did “work” – transforming the plan’s participation rate from 62% to 98%.

That said, you can imagine what happened when the employer in question adopted automatic enrollment in a plan of modest income workers; you get more, albeit arguably smaller, account balances (also their contribution default was just 2%). And with a workforce that has high turnover – those smaller balances are more likely to be cashed out – and then create “leakage.” And apparently in this isolated circumstance, with contribution rates (and amounts) so low and turnover so high you can actually get a result that allows you to conclude with a straight face that the withdrawals add up to 40% of the inflows. A conclusion that might well be transformed by the casual reader into an assumption that the result could rationally be imputed to the 401(k) system at large  And then (with a similarly straight face) hold that  out as though that is in any way representative of the 401(k) system overall.

All in all, Rekenthaler’s issues with the 401(k) appear to be two-fold: the aforementioned issue with leakage[i] – and coverage. The former he apparently wants to rectify by “replacing early withdrawal tax penalties with a stronger deterrent.” However, since he appears to want to preserve a participant’s right to “opt out” of this new design, it seems fair to worry that restricting access to those funds will almost certainly diminish the amount(s) that workers are willing to set aside in those accounts. In other words, there may be less coming out – but then, there might well be (much?) less going in.  

Access Able?

As for coverage, Rekenthaler apparently wants to solve with some kind of program such that “Every worker at every company, in every state, in every industry, will have access to a New Retirement Plan.” Apparently he’s not referring to Social Security, though of course, it already extends that far.

However, when it comes to coverage, I share Rekentaler’s concern. As we’ve commented before, with all of its success, and expansion, with all the trillions of dollars now set aside for retirement, coverage remains an issue. We’ve estimated that nearly 5 million employers nationwide do not provide a retirement plan to employees, and as a result some 28,280,000 full-time employees still do not have access to an employer provided retirement plan.

Now, Rekenthaler’s hinted at a solution (he promises to unveil it today) – that involves “removing the employer from the system.”
And that’s where I think he makes a (really) big mistake.

There’s no doubt that a system that relies both on voluntary action on the part employers and an active response by workers will inevitably miss some – and indeed there’s no getting around the reality that, 40 years on, retirement plan coverage has, basically, “flat-lined”.

That said, there’s already a version of “removing the employer from the system” in place, of course – it’s the state-run programs for private sector workers in Oregon, and more recently in California. Proponents tout the contribution and participation rates of those programs as a success and – relative to their non-participation outside those programs–,that’s a fair assessment.

Of course, those contribution (5.5%) and participation (approximately 70%) rates pale in comparison to private sector plan experience, where participation rates in automatic enrollment plans typically exceed 90% and where the 62^nd annual Plan Sponsor Council of America (PSCA) 401(k) survey recently found a combined employer/employee contribution rate of 12.2%.

The involvement of the employer is even more compelling when you consider that even workers of relatively modest means (those earning $30,000-$50,000/year) are 12 times as likely to save for retirement ina tax-advantaged account if they have access to a plan at work.

There’s something to be said for making it easier to transport those accounts from one employer to another, for making it easier to roll them over into an IRA than to simply take the distribution in cash. That said, the problem seems not to be the 401(k) plan, but the lack of 401(k) plans – plans that thrive because of the support and encouragement of employers – not just in enrollment and education, but in the matching contributions which often accompany such undertakings. 

It’s been said that there’s no use crying over spilled milk. But it seems to me that discarding the 401(k) as “expired” would be like throwing out milk weeks ahead of its “best if served by” date.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i]With regard to leakage, while it’s an issue of some concern, none other than the non-partisan Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has previously considered the issue, and found that cashouts at job change were found to have a much more serious impact on 401(k) accumulation than either plan loan defaults or hardship withdrawals (even with the impact of a six-month suspension of contributions included, and though thanks to recent legislation, that should be less of an issue going forward. How much more? Well, cashouts at termination were approximately two-thirds of the leakage impact. 

‘Still’ Standing: 6 Key Industry Trends to Watch

The Plan Sponsor Council of America recently released its 62nd Annual Survey of Profit-Sharing and 401(k) Plans, documenting a record high rate of savings, alongside an uptick in Roth contributions and other trends. However, sometimes the things that don’t change can be just as telling…

Target-date trends (still) dominate, but… 

Let’s face it – target-date funds are one of the most common items on a plan investment menu today (the PSCA survey noted that it’s the option in which assets are most frequently invested) and – in no small part due to their prevalence as a default investment alternative – continue to garner a lion’s share of new contribution dollars, if older savers (perhaps more precisely, longer-tenured savers) haven’t embraced (or more accurately, been defaulted into) the option with as much enthusiasm. That said, while more than two-thirds (68.6%) of respondents offer a target-date fund option, that’s actually down 5% in the past two years.

Interestingly enough, the PSCA survey found a rough 50-50 split among respondents between those relying on target-date fund glidepaths that are “to” versus “through” retirement. Additionally, actively managed TDFs outnumber passive by more than two-to-one among plans with fewer than 5,000 participants. That is reversed among plans with more than 5,000 participants.

Robo-advice (still) isn’t making much headway.

Just 1 in 10 (10.9%) of plan sponsor respondents provide participants with access to a robo-advisor, and if that’s somewhat higher (approximately 15%) among larger programs, the vast majority do not.

However, it may be worth noting that 15.6% who don’t currently say they are considering the option, particularly among smaller programs – though in last year’s survey, that was 17.2%.

Automatic enrollment (remains) a large-plan feature.

Fewer than a third (30.5%) of the smallest programs offer the feature, and only about half (56%) of plans with 50-199 participants, compared with roughly three-quarters among larger programs. On the other hand, roughly a decade ago – when the Pension Protection Act of 2006 was new – only about a third (35.6%) of respondents to the PSCA survey offered automatic enrollment. But then, it’s now been a decade… 

Not that it’s not been considered – but asked why those that didn’t offer the feature had made that choice, the predominant reason given was satisfaction with participation rates.

However, among the largest (> 5,000 participants), the most cited rationale was… cost.

Once participants are enrolled, they (still) tend to “stick.”

The percentage of participants who opt out of automatic enrollment programs in private sector retirement plans has always been relatively small, generally 5-10%, and in this year’s PSCA survey some 70% say that the opt-out rate remains 5% – or lower.

That stands in some contrast with the data we have seen with the early state-run plan options, where the opt-out rate has been in the 25% and higher range, though those programs lack an employer match and the nurturing that employment-based plans typically provide. And, arguably, the 75% who “stick” there are better off than with no plan at all.

Financial wellness is (still) largely a large plan feature. 

While nearly half (45.8%) of the largest (5,000 or more participant) programs claim to have a “comprehensive financial wellness program,” only about a quarter (27.1%) of those with 1,000-4,999 participants do, as do only 22% of those with between 200-999 participants.

For all the coverage that the subject engenders – and it’s considerable in this space – it’s not unusual to find awareness and interest gaps among plan sponsors, with perspectives ranging from ignorance to ambivalence to downright skepticism, even among large plan sponsors. The data here (and in other surveys of plan sponsors) suggest that the concept/focus is far from universal.

Traditional success measures (still) dominate.

Participation rates remain the dominant success measure of plans of all size: 87.6% overall, and more than 95% of the largest programs, cite that benchmark. Deferral rates rank second – 75.8% overall, but higher among larger plans, with average account balances a distant, but (to my eyes, anyway) a remarkably robust third.

For all the talk about an expanding focus on outcomes, income replacement ratios are a distant fourth, although 42% of the largest programs (those are the ones with the financial wellness programs, after all) do track this benchmark. Of course, particularly with a voluntary approach to retirement saving, employers may well be hesitant to establish as a benchmark of success the attainment of a goal that is not only unique to each individual, but generally outside of their ability to control or influence.

Though we can hope that participants – who do have some control over that outcome – are paying attention.
Industry surveys, particularly those with a broad range of plan types and providers and the perspective of decades that PSCA’s survey spans, provide an invaluable sense and appreciation of not only where things stand, but also how far we’ve come.

And sometimes, even when the trend is more or less status quo, and perhaps even more so, their real value lies in helping us see where we need to be.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD
 
More information about the Plan Sponsor Council of America’s 62^nd Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans is available at www.psca.org.

‘Things,’ Remembered – 2019

It is something of a tradition this time of year to look back, to reminisce about past events and lessons learned, and sometimes to look ahead – and who am I to buck that trend? Here’s a look back – and some “things” that I hope will help lay the groundwork for a productive and prosperous 2020 for both you, and those you serve.

‘THINGS’ FOR PLAN FIDUCIARIES

7 Smart Shopping Steps to Avoid Buyer’s Remorse

Shopping for a new provider is not something one would normally equate with a Black Friday foray or a Cyber Week scramble. But if you have a plan sponsor – or plan sponsor prospect – who’s thinking about shopping for a new provider, here are some ideas to share.

6 Things That Scare Plan Fiduciaries

Halloween is the time of year when one’s thoughts turn to trick-or-treat, ghosts and goblins, and things that go bump in the night. But what keeps – or should keep – plan fiduciaries up at night? Well, there are the things like…

5 Things Plan Sponsors (Still) Screw Up

Plan sponsors have a lot of responsibilities and often rely on others to help them keep their plan operating in accordance with the law. And yet, even with the most attentive plan sponsors, mistakes (still) occur. Here’s a list of some of the most common missteps.

4 Fiduciary Lessons from the Game of Thrones

I was late to the Game of Thrones – and though its final season seems a bit “rushed” – there has been plenty to not only watch, but mull over in its eight-season run. And yet, as the series wound to a close on Sunday night, I kept thinking there were some lessons for retirement amidst the mayhem.

5 Things Your Plan Committee Members Need to Know

Over the past decade and change, there have been a number of high-profile excessive fee suits brought against retirement plan fiduciaries, notably the plan committees that oversee these programs. Here’s what your plan committee members should know.

‘THINGS’ FOR PLAN PARTICIPANTS/WORKERS

6 Things That People Get Wrong About Retirement

Retirement planning can be a complicated process – and surveys suggest that most workers haven’t even attempted a guess. But even those who have can overlook some pretty significant factors that can have a dramatic impact on retirement readiness. Here are some critical factors that are easy to get “wrong.”

5 Things Your Retirement Can (Still) Learn From Game of Thrones

Whether you are a Game of Thrones aficionado – or haven’t watched a single episode – there are lessons to be learned nonetheless.

4 Things Those Who Aren’t Saving for Retirement Should Know About Saving for Retirement

While there are plenty of good reasons to save, we all know that it can be tough to start. But in that spirit, here are four things that those who aren’t (yet) saving for retirement should know.

11 Ways Gen Z’s Retirement Will be Different

Those “kids” who were just dropped off at college for the first time? By their sophomore year, their generation will constitute one-quarter of the U.S. population. How will their retirement be different?

- Nevin E. Adams, JD