What’s Next?

In just a couple of weeks, tens of thousands of students (including a daughter of mine) will graduate from college. For most, it’s a journey of joys, trials and tribulations, an education, not just from a textbook or a professor’s wisdom, but the insights that one can only get from actually living through a different stage of life. Those students set out upon that journey years ago, and, doubtless following careful deliberation and the counsel of friends, families, and a few trusted advisors, a course was set. A course that many “adjusted” – by choice and sometimes of necessity – over the course of the last few years, but a course for their future, nonetheless.

Now the question is – what will they do next?

As parents, we spend a lot of time, energy, and money trying to help our children make good choices, but at a certain point, most of us step back, grit our teeth (and sometimes close our eyes), and hope that they do. Those decisions aren’t always the ones we would make – but, ready or not, they are made, sometimes for the better, sometimes not.

Similarly, this industry has expended a lot of time, energy, and money over the years to try and help individuals make good decisions about preparing for retirement. A growing number of individuals are now entering this new stage in their lives, and we ask ourselves, “Are they ready?”

In answer to that question, we can look at their individual situations and make certain projections about that readiness, based on their health, their gender, their income levels pre-retirement, and their likely levels of spending post-retirement, among other things[i]. But what will ultimately matter is what they do next – and that’s a factor not just of how much savings they have (or think they have) at the point of retirement, or the amount of other resources they may have available then (and thereafter), but how those resources are now invested, how they are invested over time, and how - and when – those resources are spent.

The factors that influence those decisions, as well as their results and potential consequences will, of course, continue to be a key focus for EBRI[ii]in the years to come – just as EBRI’s nonpartisan gathering, analyzing, and modeling the impact of behavioral, plan design, and regulatory influences has provided critical insights on those individual preparations for nearly thirty-five years now.

It matters because knowing what this generation does “next” is likely to be an important part of helping the next generation do better.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i]See EBRI Issue Brief July 2010 for more information on the EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating™ at http://www.ebri.org/publications/ib/index.cfm?fa=ibDisp&content_id=4593. The 2010 update uses the most recent data and considers retirement plan changes (e.g., automatic enrollment, auto escalation of contributions, and diversified default investments resulting from the Pension Protection Act of 2006) as well as updates for financial market performance and employee behavior (based on a database of 24 million 401(k) participants). Results will be updated next month, in our May Issue Brief.

[ii]More information on the EBRI Center for Research on Retirement Income is available at http://www.ebri.org/research/retirement-research-centers/retirement-savings-income/. For information about becoming a Research Partner, contact Nevin Adams, at nadams@ebri.org.

"After" Math

Last week, EBRI Research Director Jack VanDerhei testified[i]before the House Ways & Means Committee on the subject of “Tax Reform and Tax-Favored Retirement Accounts”, a hearing described as considering “…the current menu of options for retirement savings—both with respect to employer-based defined contribution plans and with respect to IRAs.” According to Committee Chairman David Camp (R-MI), the hearing was to “…explore whether, as part of comprehensive tax reform, various reform options could achieve the three goals of simplification, efficiency, and increasing retirement and financial security for American families.”

That hearing preceded by just a day Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kurt Conrad’s (D-North Dakota) unveiling of his Fiscal Commission Budget Plan (see link here). That plan[ii]referenced the original Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission’s “Illustrative” Tax Reform option under which the exclusion for employer-provided health insurance would be modified, capping its value for five years and then phasing it out over 20 years, while retirement savings accounts would be consolidated, with a cap on tax-preferred contributions.[iii] 

While the prospects for actual legislation ahead of the November election seem unlikely, it is clear that concerns about the nation’s budget deficit will keep tax reform—and the tax status of workplace benefit programs—front-and-center in the weeks and months to come.
Appropriately enough, next month EBRI will host its 70^th policy forum, titled "’After’ Math: The Impact and Influence of Incentives on Benefit Policy.” At this semi-annual policy forum, panels of experts will deal with a variety of pertinent and timely issues, including the potential impact of changes to current tax incentives for employee benefits, and the “true cost” of tax deferrals. 
We’ll also talk about what 401(k)/defined contribution plans are delivering, and what individuals actually do after retirement with respect to their retirement savings, as well as optimal approaches on retirement income designs for defined contribution plans. We’ll even look around the globe for some potential lessons to be drawn from international comparisons.

It’s a day of information, interaction, and networking that you won’t want to miss.

However, seats are limited—reserve your place today. You can’t afford not to.

A copy of the full Policy Forum agenda, and registration information is online here.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i]A copy of Jack VanDerhei’s written testimony for the House Ways & Means Committee is available online here.

Video of the testimony is available in two sections, Part 1 and Part 2.

Additional information regarding the Ways & Means hearing is available online here.

[ii]See page 11, online here.

[iii]Last year an EBRI Notes article (July 2011, online here) analyzed the potential impact of those kind of changes on retirement savings.

Titanic Proportions

This weekend marks the 100th anniversary of the sinking of the now iconic RMS Titanic, at the time the world’s largest ocean liner. Its passengers included some of the wealthiest people in the world, as well as a large number of emigrants seeking a new life in North America. On the ocean liner’s maiden—and only—voyage, it carried 2,244 people, 1,514 of whom would perish as a result of a decision to carry only enough lifeboats to accommodate about half those on board. Despite that, the tale of Titanic’s closing hours is generally one of an orderly, “women and children first” evacuation, with the band playing on while passengers stood in line and waited their turn.

In an NPR report this week titled “Why Didn’t Passengers Panic on the Titanic?” David Savage, an economist and Queensland University in Australia, compared the behavior of the passengers on the Titanic with those on the Lusitania, another ship that also sunk at about the same time. Both involved luxury liners, both had a similar number of passengers and a similar number of survivors. But on the Lusitania, passengers panicked—and the survivors were mostly those who were able to swim and get into the lifeboats. The biggest difference in the reactions in these two similar circumstances, Savage concludes in the report, was time: The Lusitania, struck by a U-Boat torpedo, sank in less than 20 minutes, while the Titanic took approximately two and a half hours. Time enough, in the case of Titanic, according to Savage, for social order to prevail over “instinct.”

I’ve not yet seen anyone link the nation’s retirement prospects to the Titanic, though the importance of starting to save early, establishing a plan, and having a goal all fit within the moral of that example: Act while you have time, as you may not always have all the time you need, or the resources to take advantage of it. But what kind of time do Americans have?
The concept of measuring retirement security—or retirement income adequacy—is an extremely important topic, and EBRI has been working with this type of measurement since the late 1990s. When we modeled the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers in 2012, approximately 44 percent of those households were projected to have inadequate retirement income for basic retirement expenses plus uninsured health care costs; so the glass is more than half full, but just a bit. That’s a big percentage, but it’s still an improvement of 5‐8 percentage points over what we found in 2003, when the glass was, indeed, half empty. The improvement occurred despite the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, and the subsequent “great recession.”

In part, that is because the passage of time allowed more funds to be saved, but that improvement is largely due to the fact that in 2003 very few 401(k) sponsors had automatic enrollment (AE) provisions in place, and participation rates among the lower-income workers (those most likely to be at risk) was quite low. However, with the uptick in adoption of AE the past few years after passage of the Pension Protection Act (PPA), participation rates have often increased to the high 80 or low 90 percent—and that stands to make a big difference in shoring up the retirement financial security of many of those who need it the most. In fact, EBRI simulation results show that approximately 60 percent of the AE-eligible workers would immediately be better off in an AE plan than in a plan design relying on voluntary enrollment, and that over time (as automatic escalation provisions took effect for some of the workers) that number would increase to 85 percent.

The tragic loss of life on the Titanic is generally attributed to a shortage of lifeboats, while on the Lusitania, it was the lack of time to get people into the lifeboats available. For many of those looking ahead to retirement, plan design changes such as automatic enrollment and contribution acceleration look to be a real retirement life-saver, as they encourage both early action and the effective use of time.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD


While the lack of retirement income adequacy for the lowest-income households is a matter of concern, so is the rate at which they will run “short” of money during retirement. Indeed, as documented in our July 2010 Issue Brief (“The EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating:™ Retirement Income Preparation and Future Prospects,”41 percent of early boomers in the lowest income quartile could run short of money within 10 years after they retire.

More information is included in recent testimony by Jack VanDerhei, EBRI research director, before the Senate Banking Committee, on "Retirement (In)security: Examining the Retirement Savings Deficit" (T-171), available online here.

Planning Ahead

April is Financial Literacy Month, and National Retirement Planning Week, sponsored by the National Retirement Planning Coalition (of which EBRI’s America Savings Education Council (ASEC) is a member) is April 9–13. Both events serve to remind us all of the importance not only of saving, but of establishing specific goals for saving.

I was pleased, therefore, this past month to help one daughter set up her first SEP-IRA—and even more pleased to about the same time learn that my other daughter was, of her own volition, making a conscious effort to set aside what seemed to her father to be a fairly substantial portion of her modest income in savings. These are things I knew to do when I was their age, of course, but things I must admit took me a few years to act on.

It’s easy, in the normal press of life, to put off thinking about retirement, much less thinking about saving for a period of life many can hardly imagine. We all know we should do it—but some figure that it will take more time and energy than we can afford just now, some assume the process will provide a depressing, perhaps even insurmountable target, while others don’t even know how to get started (see Goals Tending).

Here are five reasons why you—or those you care about—should save for retirement now:

Because you don’t want to work forever.

If you want to stop working one day, you are going to have to think about how much income you will need to live after you are no longer working for a paycheck.

Because living in retirement isn’t free.

Many people assume that expenses will go down in retirement—and, in fact, a recent EBRI Issue Brief ) noted “With the age 65 expenditure as a benchmark, household expenditure are lower by 19 percent by age 75, and 34 percent by age 85….” On the other hand, there are changes in how we spend in retirement as well—and they aren’t always less. That same EBRI report notes that health-related expenses are the second-largest component in the budget of older Americans, and a component that steadily increases with age. “Health care expenses capture around 10 percent of the budget for those between 50–64, but increase to about 20 percent for those age 85 and over.” And those spending shifts don’t take into account the possibility of a need or desire to provide financial support to parents and/or children.

Because you may not be able to work as long as you think:

Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has more than tripled, to 37 percent. Those expectations notwithstanding, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure (see “The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: Job Insecurity, Debt Weigh on Retirement Confidence, Savings”).

Because you don’t know how long you will live:

People are living longer and the longer your life, the longer your potential retirement, particularly if it begins sooner than you think. Retiring at age 65 today? A man would have a 50 percent chance of still being alive at age 81 (and a woman at age 85); a 25 percent chance of living to nearly 90; a 10 percent chance of getting close to 100. How big a chance do you want to take of outliving your money in old age?

Because the sooner you start, the easier it will be.

What are you waiting for? A good place to start is the BallparkE$timate,® and with the other materials available at www.choosetosave.org

- Nevin E. Adams, JD


More information about National Retirement Planning Week is available online here.

Information about the Spring 2012 American Savings Education Council (ASEC) Partners Meeting, with a focus this year on retirement planning is available online here.

“Generation” Gaps

If you think it’s complicated trying to determine an individual’s retirement funding needs, imagine trying to do so for all American workers. That was the topic of a Senate Banking subcommittee hearing last week titled “Retirement (In)security: Examining the Retirement Savings Deficit,” at which EBRI Research Director Jack VanDerhei was asked to testify.(1)

When EBRI modeled the retirement savings gap of Baby Boomers and Gen Xers earlier this year, we found that between 43 and 44 percent of the households were projected to be at risk of not having adequate retirement income for BASIC retirement expenses plus uninsured health care costs—though that was 5–8 percentage points LOWER than what we found in 2003. That’s right: In terms of that retirement savings gap, American households are better off today than they were nine years ago—even after the financial and real estate market crises in 2008 and 2009.

Measuring retirement income adequacy is an extremely important and complex topic, and one that EBRI started to provide back as far as the late 1990s. Our recent projections indicate that the average individual deficit number (for those with a deficit) ranges from approximately $70,000 for families, to $95,000 for single males, to $105,000 for single females.

Stated in aggregate terms, that would be $4.3 trillion for all Baby Boomers and Gen Xers in 2012. That’s a large number, to be sure, but still considerably smaller than some of the projections that have been put forth.

Here are four things that are sometimes overlooked that help explain the “gaps” in retirement projection gaps:

Some won’t have a retirement

The reality is that some people won’t make it to retirement. On an individual level, we may not know who they are, but in the aggregate we can project the impact with some precision.

You can’t ignore the impact of uniquely post-retirement expenditures.

Health care costs—and post-retirement health care costs particularly—remain a potential source of underplanning, both for retirement and retirement projections. The reality is that we spend differently in retirement than we do before retirement. Moreover, the costs of care, and particularly care such as nursing home and/or long-term care, loom large. And many won’t think or insure for that risk until it’s too late.

Tomorrow’s retirement will be funded differently.

Looking back, even only a few years, assuming that the income sources of current retirees will be available to future retirees glosses over the reality that a major shift in emphasis in retirement plan design has taken place. In the future, the proportion of retirees receiving traditional pension income will almost certainly decline, and the percentage relying on defined contribution savings (primarily 401(k)-type plans) as a primary source of post-retirement income is certain to increase. Projecting future retirement income flows based on the experience of today’s retirees is certain to miss the mark.

We’re already saving “better.”

Thanks to the growing popularity of automatic plan design trends—automatic deferrals, contribution acceleration, qualified default investment alternatives—many of today’s retirement plan participants are already saving earlier and investing more age-appropriately than ever before. There’s no reason to assume these trends won’t continue to extend and expand going forward. Projections based on pre-Pension Protection Act defined contribution trends are relying on yesterday’s news.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

(1) Video of the hearing is available online HERE. Dr. VanDerhei’s testimony is available HERE

“Counter” Intuitive?

When one considers the impact of changes in tax policy on retirement plan savings, it is perhaps natural to assume that those who pay more taxes would respond to changes in the taxation of their contributions and/or savings. However, what’s probably not as obvious to many is that lower-income workers could also be significantly impacted. Indeed, as noted in the March 2011 EBRI Notes, “…behavioral economics has shown that the reaction of employees in situations similar to this are often at odds with what would have been predicted by an objective concerned simply with optimizing a financial strategy.”(1)

As part of the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey, workers were asked about the importance of tax deferrals in encouraging them to save for retirement. Quoting from the November 2011 EBRI Issue Brief, “If one were to look at this from a strictly financial perspective, one would assume that the lower-income individuals (those most likely to pay no or low marginal tax rates and therefore have a smaller financial incentive to deduct retirement savings contributions from taxable income) would be least likely to rate this as ‘very important.’ However, those in the lowest household income category ($15,000 to less than $25,000) actually have the largest percentage of respondents classifying the tax deductibility of contributions as very important (76.2 percent).”

Additionally, asked how they would likely respond if their ability to defer those taxes was eliminated, it was the lowest-income category ($15,000 to less than $25,000) that reacted most negatively—with 56.7 percent indicating they would reduce the amount they would save in these plans (see http://www.ebri.org/publications/notes/index.cfm?fa=notesDisp&content_id=4785).

As part of the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey,(2) participants were asked about their likely response to a different set of federal tax modifications included in a specific proposal. (3) Those participant responses were subsequently integrated with those of plan sponsor respondents to a 2011 AllianceBernstein survey(4) to the changes contemplated under that same proposal. The proposal author’s analysis had largely assumed status quo in terms of plan design changes (by plan sponsors) and contribution flows (by both individual participants and employers) in response to those changes.

In fact, the average percentage reduction for 401(k) participants in the two smallest plan size categories (less than $1 million and $1–$10 million in assets) were more than 1.5 times the value of the average percentage reduction for participants in any of the larger plan-size categories (regardless of the income level of the 401(k) participants). Striking as those results are, there is a ripple effect on participant savings to be considered as well.

A new EBRI study uses the EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM), and with a database of tens of thousands of 401(k) plans and millions of participant accounts, to provide baseline analysis. That analysis indicates that the cumulative impact of reported plan sponsor modifications and individual participant reactions would result in an average percentage reduction in 401(k) balances of between 6–22 percent at Social Security normal retirement age for workers currently ages 26–35. That analysis also indicates that an even larger average percentage accumulation reduction would result for participants in small plans.(5)

Those participant and plan sponsor responses may be counter-intuitive to some—but it’s the type of response - and impact - that shouldn’t be overlooked.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

(1) See “The Impact of Modifying the Exclusion of Employee Contributions for Retirement Savings Plans From Taxable Income: Results from the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey.”

(2) See “The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: Job Insecurity, Debt Weigh on Retirement Confidence, Savings.”

(3) It’s not the first time EBRI has undertaken such an analysis, of course. EBRI has looked at preliminary evidence of the impact of these “20/20 caps” on projected retirement accumulations under a set of assumptions—see “Capping Tax-Preferred Retirement Contributions: Preliminary Evidence of the Impact of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Recommendations”, and “Tax Reform Options: Promoting Retirement Security,” EBRI Issue Brief, No. 364, November 2011. EBRI also provided testimony before the Senate Finance Committee on the issue, online here. Research Director Jack VanDerhei also submitted testimony to the Senate Finance Committee on “The Impact of Modifying the Exclusion of Employee Contributions for Retirement Savings Plans From Taxable Income: Results From the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey," .

(4) AllianceBernstein, 2011, “Inside the Minds of Plan Sponsors” Research.

(5) That integration of sentiment with EBRI’s extensive 401(k) database and modeling capabilities provided a unique perspective on the full potential impact of these changes on cumulative savings amounts, which was outlined in our recent March 2012 EBRI Notes article, “Modifying the Federal Tax Treatment of 401(k) Plan Contributions: Projected Impact on Participant Account Balances.”

'Good' Vibrations

Last week the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Mathew Greenwald & Associates, Inc., unveiled the 22nd annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS).

Among the things we have learned after doing this survey for more than two decades: People’s confidence about retirement frequently seems out of line with the financial resources they indicate they have on hand to fund it. Of course, most (56%) of this year’s respondents admit neither they nor their spouse have made even a single attempt to determine how much they need to achieve that comfortable retirement—so it shouldn’t be too surprising that, asked how much they think they need to have saved in order to provide for a comfortable retirement, many hold forth a number that seems lower than some might expect.

While we spent a fair amount of time this week discussing the results with reporters, one question that came up repeatedly was “Why do you do this survey? What do you hope people take from it?”

The survey itself is meaningful both for the kinds of issues it deals with: Questions that, as in this year’s RCS, deal not just with confidence as a “feeling” but also the criteria that underlie and influence that sentiment. It looks at the perspective both of those already in retirement, as well as those still working and heading toward that milestone. It also (with a perspective based on two decades of conducting this particular survey) offers insights on how those feelings and factors have changed over time.

Those good reasons notwithstanding, this past week EBRI reminded reporters that the RCS has found that people who have taken the time to do a retirement needs assessment are generally more confident than those who haven’t done so, and not necessarily because they find that they are in better shape than they’d thought. In fact, most report that they set higher savings goals AFTER they had done the assessment—and were THEN more confident in their situation.

That is why EBRI joined many others in 1995 to establish the American Savings Education Council (ASEC), and then the ChoosetoSave(r) program and the BallparkE$timate(r). Millions of Americans have used the BallparkE$timate(r) at www.choosetosave.org to help them climb the hill to savings and greater financial security, and according to the RCS, a more realistic view of the future.

There’s something to be said for knowing the size and extent of what was previously unknown, particularly when it comes to setting a financial goal as complex as planning for retirementcan seem.

If the annual publication of the RCS does no more than remind individuals of the importance of taking the time to do so, then it’s not only good information—it’s information that does some good.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD


Results of the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) are now available online HERE

"Managing" Expectations

On March 13,(1) the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Mathew Greenwald & Associates, Inc., will unveil the 22nd annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS)—the longest-running annual retirement survey of its kind in the nation. Indeed, the RCS is unique in offering a perspective on retirement that is now as long as the retirement of those living to average life expectancy at 65.

Consider that back in 1996, the sixth annual RCS found that 24 percent of retirees were not confident that they would have enough money to live comfortably throughout their retirement years, and more than 1 in 5 said their lifestyles were worse than when they first retired (with nearly 1 in 10 calling them "a lot worse"). The report noted that “[t]wo-thirds of those working then predicted they would work after they ‘retire,’ and nearly 40 percent of those say they think they'll need to for financial reasons, to pay the bills and make ends meet.”

Five years later, the 2001 RCS noted that the percentage of individuals who say they have personally saved for retirement decreased from 75 percent in 2000 to 71 percent, though that was still better than the 59 percent cited in 1998. At the time, the RCS noted that the “changes in individual behavior regarding retirement savings may in part be attributed to recent declines in consumer confidence, employment, the economy, and the equity markets.”

While a press release about the 2006 RCS stated that “RCS data over the past 12 years continue to show that retirement confidence overall among workers does not seem to be affected by either stock market performance or varying economic conditions,” subsequent events—notably the 2008 financial crisis—did seem to undermine confidence levels.

The 2010 RCS acknowledged that Americans’ confidence in their ability to afford a comfortable retirement had plunged to a new low at the same time that the recent declines in other retirement confidence indicators appeared to be “stabilizing.” And yet, just one year later, the 2011 RCS cautioned, “Instead of making fundamental adjustments to their spending and saving patterns in response to the decline in confidence, workers continue to change their expectations ”.

How we view—and anticipate—retirement can have a dramatic impact on that reality, and the RCS provides valuable insights into the perspectives of those heading toward, and those already dealing with, the realities of retirement.

What matters, of course, isn’t one’s confidence about having a financially secure retirement. What matters is having taken the time and energy to actually do something about it.

Nevin E. Adams, JD


(1) Full results of the 2012 RCS will be available online at www.ebri.org the morning of Tuesday, March 13.

“Difference” Strokes

In response to concerns that tomorrow’s retirees will run short of money, we are often told to save more, to work longer, or – as often as not these days – to work longer AND save more. Certainly working and saving longer can do wonders in terms of stretching your retirement nest egg.

However, the timing of the retirement decision is often not within an individual’s control. In fact, the Retirement Confidence Survey has consistently found that a large percentage of retirees leave the work force earlier than planned. In fact, nearly half (45 percent) of retirees reported that they were in this situation in 2011 (see EBRI Issue Brief No. 355, March 2011, The 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey: Confidence Drops to Record Lows, Reflecting “the New Normal”).

Real-world data have shown (and shown for some time now) that the median retirement age for Americans is not even as old as 65 (it’s been 62). Still, EBRI research has shown that working longer – even working past the age of 65 – is no guarantee of a financially satisfying retirement. In fact, a June 2011 Issue Brief titled “The Impact of Deferring Retirement Age on Retirement Income Adequacy” ) notes that, even if a worker delays his or her retirement until age 80, just 61.7% of the lowest preretirement income quartile households would have a 50 percent probability of not running out of money in retirement.

What Matters


The research notes that how workers fare financially after retirement is directly tied to three factors: their salary level at retirement, how long they work beyond 65, and whether they save in a defined contribution retirement plan during their working lifetime. In fact, the report notes that “a major factor that makes a difference” in their ability to meet basic and uninsured health-care costs in retirement is “whether they are still participating in a defined contribution plan after the age of 65.” How much difference? At least a 10 percentage point difference in the majority of the retirement age/income combinations.

Ultimately, the research should remind us of a couple of things: first, that the assumption that we’ll be able to work past “normal” retirement age is just that—an assumption. Second, and more important, even if that assumption pans out, it cannot be assumed that it will, in and of itself, prove to be sufficient.

But finally, and significantly, there is at least one thing individuals can exercise some control over in the “here and now” – their current—and continued—participation in defined contribution plans.

And that’s something that can directly—and significantly—make a difference in building a financially viable retirement.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

(1) Admittedly, except for those in the lowest income quartile, this would be a small percentage of the population, depending on your expectations of success (see “Short” Comings ). Still, according to the EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model (RSPM) baseline results, the lowest preretirement income quartile would need to defer retirement age to 84 before 90 percent of the households would have a 50 percent probability of success.

You can read more about how these factors impact retirement income adequacy HERE

Goals Tending

The bad news is that times are still tough for many Americans—and surveys suggest that even those with jobs are nervous about their prospects for the future. The good news is that the current level of economic uncertainty seems to have brought about—at least for some—a heightened awareness of the need to set money aside for a rainy day, perhaps even those rainy days in retirement.

That said, the weak economy has certainly constrained the ability of many to save. In fact, a recent national survey found that an increasing number of Americans are having difficulty saving to meet goals ranging from meeting emergencies to affording retirement. The survey—released as part of America Saves Week(1)—noted that over the past three years, there has been a decline in the number of people who spend less than their income and save the difference, are building home equity, have adequate emergency savings, and think they are saving enough for retirement.

However, the survey also revealed that having a savings plan has beneficial financial effects, even for lower-income families. Consider that 85% of those who had a savings plan spent less than their income, (86% of this group felt they had sufficient emergency savings), and 3 in 4 said they were saving enough for retirement.

On the other hand, just 44% of those without a savings plan claimed to be spending less than their income, while 43% said they had sufficient emergency savings. Fewer than 1 in 4 of those with no savings plan said they were saving enough for retirement.

And yet, while those with a plan for savings had significantly better savings behaviors, fewer than half of survey respondents said they had “a savings plan with specific goals.”

It is admittedly simplistic to chasten those truly unable to save because of challenging economic circumstances. On the other hand, there are surely some today better able to weather those economic storms because they chose to set money aside during less tumultuous times.

That first step on that path, and it’s a critical one, is to Choose to Save.® As America Saves Week reminds us—and those trying to help others save—there’s no better time to start on that path to Save For Your Future® than today.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

Note: Organizations interested in building/reinforcing a workplace savings campaign can find free resources—and a handy schedule of events around which to construct a program—here courtesy of the American Savings Education Council (ASEC).



Endnotes

(1) America Saves Week is an annual event where hundreds of national and local organizations promote good savings behavior and individuals are encouraged to assess their own saving status. America Saves Week is managed by the Consumer Federation of America (CFA), and the American Savings Education Council (ASEC). ASEC is a program of the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), which commissioned the survey, undertaken by Opinion Research Corp. You can find out more about America Saves Week here.

(2) Choose to Save® is sponsored by the nonprofit, nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute Education and Research Fund (EBRI-ERF) and one of its programs, the American Savings Education Council (ASEC). The website and materials development have been underwritten through generous grants and additional support from EBRI members and ASEC Partner institutions.

“Short” Comings

In this business you are frequently asked “how much should people save for retirement?” Some try to answer that question with a degree of specificity that can be somewhat simplistic.

Let’s face it, even if those close enough to retirement to have a sense of what their pre-retirement income level is (and, flawed as that can be, most projections start from that assumption as a baseline for what you’ll want/need to spend in retirement—see “Replacement” Window ), most struggle to turn that into a real savings figure.

Ultimately, of course, a reliable answer to that retirement savings question requires an understanding of the individual’s goals and/or financial needs—and, predicated on certain assumptions, there are any number of tools that can help individuals set a target and (based on that) establish a savings plan.

However, the planning question that almost never gets asked is: “And how certain do you want to be of achieving that target?”

Asked that question, I suspect most individuals would respond, “100%.” Unfortunately, much of the modeling that is being used to help individuals set those targets is based on averages: things such as average life expectancy, average investment experience, and—in the really in-depth models—average health care expenditures in retirement.(1) As a result, those models (useful as they might be in terms of framing a planning discussion) produce a result that will fall short…50% of the time.

In fairness, some of those shortfalls could be small. After all, if you’re a dollar short, you’re still short a dollar. But in some cases those shortfalls could be larger—much larger, in fact(2).

And that’s a fact worth keeping in mind.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD


(1) For more information on these kinds of projections—and EBRI’s Retirement Readiness Rating—see EBRI Issue Brief No. 344

(2) For a more detailed discussion about those projected shortfalls—and how they can vary according to such factors as gender, marital status, and income levels—see the October 2010 EBRI Notes, Vol. 31, No. 10.

Road "Construction"

The Senate Finance Committee is positioned to pass a highway bill, funded at least in part by changing the tax treatment on retirement accounts.

Specifically, the modified chairman’s mark of the proposed Highway Investment, Job Creation and Economic Growth bill would require that age 70-1/2 account distributions be treated, for tax purposes, as distributed within five years of the death of the account holder (unless the beneficiary is the account holder’s age, a child with special needs, or older than 70).

Under current law, holders of IRAs and 401(k)-type accounts are required to begin taking taxable distributions from those accounts once they reach age 70-1/2, though if the account holder dies, the taxation of the account is spread over the life of the beneficiary. According to a Senate Finance Committee press release, this particular provision is estimated to raise $4.648 billion over 10 years.

The bill’s prospects in the Senate remain unclear, and the Wall Street Journal notes that the House version does not contain the retirement account tax change. However, the Senate provision demonstrates how the current budgetary and economic pressures in Congress—particularly in an election year—make the tax treatment of retirement savings a major target for any number of legislative initiatives, including those that have little or nothing to do with retirement.

The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has long provided a credible and objective source of information for both policymakers and regulators, including recent testimony provided to:

• The Senate Finance Committee on “Tax Reform Options: Promoting Retirement Security”, and “The Impact of Modifying the Exclusion of Employee Contributions for Retirement Savings Plans From Taxable Income: Results From the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey.”

• The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions on “The Power of Pensions: Building a Strong Middle Class and a Strong Economy,” and

• The House Committee on Education and the Workforce, Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions, regarding “Retirement Security: Challenges Confronting Pension Plan Sponsors, Workers, and Retirees.”

The impact of certain tax reform proposals was evaluated in the November 2011 EBRI Issue Brief, and will be updated to include input from the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey next month.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD


The Employee Benefit Research Institute is a private, nonprofit research institute based in Washington, DC, that focuses on health, savings, retirement, and economic security issues. EBRI offers a unique perspective in that we do not lobby nor take policy positions. The work of EBRI is made possible by funding from its members and sponsors, which includes a broad range of organizations involved in benefits issues. For a full list see EBRI’s Members.

Above “Average”

Every so often an industry survey will come out with an “average” 401(k) balance(1). The specific numbers vary, but they are consistently less than even the most optimistic would see as sufficient to provide a financially viable retirement.

Now, in fairness, the validity of an “average,” while mathematically simple, depends heavily on its components. Most are no more than the total of all the balances of those in the 401(k), from those just entering the workforce (and thus, by definition, with negligible balances) – and with decades to go to retirement – to those who are perhaps just days away from that point. Looking at no more than the “average,” you can’t tell how many are in which category. So, while the average can, over time, provide a sense of the direction in which things are moving, it tells you very little about the adequacy of that savings to fund an individual retirement.

One way to help provide a more meaningful measure is to segment those balances by specific age demographics. In fact, EBRI has long provided not only an average 401(k) balance, but also totals for different groups. To give you a sense of the difference that can make, at year-end 2010, while the average 401(k) balance was $60,329, the average 401(k) balance for those in their 60s – at least for those with 20 years of tenure – was $159,654.

In fairness, $159,654 may not look like very much to have saved by someone in their 60s. But even then, there are many things we don’t know about that person’s individual circumstances. We don’t know if they have a defined benefit pension, for one thing, nor do we know if they have savings outside their workplace. Perhaps just as significantly, we don’t know if that average takes into account their accumulated savings in all defined contribution plans, including those savings that might have been rolled into individual retirement accounts (IRAs) along the way.

In testimony before the Senate Finance Committee last fall(2), EBRI Director of Research Jack VanDerhei noted that “[p]articipation in a retirement plan through current employment at a specific moment in time does not tell the full story of a worker’s preparedness for retirement or the availability of some form of retirement income from an employment-based retirement plan.” He went on to caution, “Unfortunately, the ‘success’ of these plans are sometimes measured by metrics that are not at all relevant to the potential for defined contribution plans to provide a significant portion of a worker’s pre‐retirement income. For example, some analysts will merely report the average balance in defined contribution plans (most commonly the 401(k) subset of this universe) and attempt to assess the value of these plans by determining the amount of annual income that this lump sum amount could be converted to at retirement age. Of course, this concept does not adjust for the fact that the vast majority of 401(k) participants are years, if not decades, away from retirement age. Moreover, even if one does look at the average balances for workers near retirement age, it is obviously not correct to look only at the 401(k) balance with the employee’s current employer. For example, an employee age 60 may have very recently changed jobs and rolled over a substantial account balance from his previous employer to an IRA.”

Sure enough, as I sit here today, I have three separate 401(k) accounts at three separate employers, a rollover IRA, and a SEP.

Anyone trying to glean a sense of my retirement prospects while looking only at my current 401(k) balance surely wouldn’t feel very optimistic.

But then, they’d only be looking at part of the picture.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

(1) Including EBRI – see “401(k) Plan Asset Allocation, Account Balances, and Loan Activity In 2010”

(2) A copy of the testimony is available here. See also “Tax Reform Options: Promoting Retirement Security”

Pats or Giants? Your Portfolio May Care

There could be a lot more riding on Sunday’s Super Bowl than you think.

If the results of the Super Bowl exert any influence on the markets – as proponents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory claim – then 2012 could prove to be truly tumultuous.

For the "uninitiated," the theory (invented/popularized by the late New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett) says that a win by a team from the old National Football League is a precursor to rising stock values for the year (at least as measured by the S&P 500), but if a team from the old American Football League (AFL) prevails, stocks will fall in the coming year.

This year we have a team from the old NFL (the NY Giants) taking on one from the old AFL (the New England Patriots, who once were the AFL’s Boston Patriots). So, if the Giants prevail, 2012 should be a good year for stocks – and if things go the Patriots’ way, well…

On the Other Hand…

Of course, as even loyal proponents will admit, this theory used to work a lot better than it has in recent years. The most obvious (and recent) proof of that was Super Bowl XLII, where these same two teams met – and the underdog New York Giants pulled off a remarkable victory – but the S&P 500 still shed…well, we don’t really need to relive that here (particularly for Patriots fans).

Last year’s contest brought together two classic NFL teams; the Pittsburgh Steelers (representing the American Football Conference) and the National Football Conference’s Green Bay Packers. Both those teams had some of the oldest, deepest, and yes, most “storied” NFL roots, with the Steelers formed in 1933 (as the Pittsburgh Pirates), and the Packers, founded in 1919. So, according to the Super Bowl Theory, 2011 should have been a good year for stocks (because, regardless of who won, an NFL team would prevail). But, as you may recall, while the Dow gained ground for the year, the S&P 500 was – well, flat.

On the other hand, 2010 turned out pretty well – a year when the New Orleans Saints bested the Indianapolis Colts, though it was, after all, also a Super Bowl featuring two teams with NFL roots. And it was also the case in 2009 when both Super Bowl teams - the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers – had NFL roots (the Arizona Cardinals by way of one time being the St. Louis Cardinals), AND in 2007 when the S&P 500 rose 3.53% as the Indianapolis Colts beat the Chicago Bears 29-17. That also turned out to be the case in 2006 when the Pittsburgh Steelers (yes, again) defeated the Seattle Seahawks in another battle of two legacy NFL clubs. That turned out to be a good year for equities, with the S&P 500 closing up more than 13%.

Except When It Doesn’t…

Of course, as even loyal proponents will admit, this theory used to work a lot better than it has in recent years. The most obvious (and recent) proof of that was the aforementioned Super Bowl XLII where the New York Giants pulled off a remarkable victory – but the S&P 500 still shed…well, we don’t really need to relive that again (particularly for Patriots fans).
Times were better for Patriots fans in 2005 when they bested the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles 24-21. According to the Super Bowl Theory, the markets should have been down for the year. However, in 2005 the S&P 500 climbed 2.55%.

Of course, the 2002 win by those same New England Patriots accurately foretold the continuation of the bear market into a third year (at the time, the first accurate result in five years). But the Patriots 2004 Super Bowl win against the Carolina Panthers failed to anticipate a fall rally that helped push the S&P 500 to a near 9% gain that year, sacking the indicator for another loss.

Consider also that, despite victories by the old AFL Denver Broncos in 1998 and 1999, the S&P 500 continued its winning ways, while victories by the NFL legacy St. Louis (by way of Los Angeles) Rams (with the just-retired Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner calling plays) and the Baltimore (by way of NFL legacy Cleveland Browns) Ravens did nothing to dispel the bear markets of 2000 and 2001.

Winning “Streaks”

All in all, the Super Bowl Theory has been on the money more often than not – much more often than not, in fact - but in true sports fashion, has had some winning streaks and some rough patches. Consider that it “worked” 28 times between 1967 and 1997 – then went 0-4 between 1998 and 2001 – only to get back on track from 2002 on (purists still dispute how to interpret Tampa Bay’s victory in 2003, since the Buccaneers spent their first NFL season in the AFC before moving to the NFC).

As for Sunday – the oddsmakers are giving the nod to the Patriots – though not by much.

It looks like it could be a good game – and that, whether you are a proponent of the Super Bowl Theory or not – would be one in which whoever wins, we all will!

Nevin E. Adams, JD


Note:

Other exceptions included: 1970, when AFC Kansas City won, and the S&P index gained 0.1%; 1984, when AFC Los Angeles Raiders won, and the S&P rose 1.4%; 1990, when NFC San Francisco prevailed, and the S&P lost 6.56%; and 1994, when NFC Dallas triumphed, but the S&P index fell 1.53%.

“Essential” Information

About a month ago, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released a bulletin outlining proposed policies that it said would “give states more flexibility and freedom to implement the Affordable Care Act.”

It did that by proposing to allow individual states to select a single benchmark to serve as the standard for qualified health plans inside the Exchange operating in their state – and for the plans offered in the individual and small group markets in their state. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act requires that health insurance plans offered in the individual and small group markets, both inside and outside the ”Affordable Insurance Exchanges” (Exchanges), offer a comprehensive package of items and services, known as “essential health benefits(1).” This benchmark would set the standard of the items and services included in the essential health benefits package called for in PPACA(2).

Acknowledging that “[t]There is not yet a national standard for plan reporting of benefits,” HHS also noted that PPACA does not provide a definition of “typical,” and it therefore gathered benefit information on large employer plans (which account for the majority of employer plan enrollees), small employer products (which account for the majority of employer plans), and plans offered to public employees (3).

In releasing its proposal, HHS noted that “[n]ot every benchmark plan includes coverage of all 10 categories of benefits identified in the Affordable Care Act” and that “the most commonly non-covered categories of benefits among typical employer plans are habilitative services, pediatric oral services, and pediatric vision services.”

However, HHS did at least suggest some boundaries, noting that states “would choose one of the following health insurance plans as a benchmark”:

•One of the three largest small group plans in the state (4);
•One of the three largest state employee health plans;
•One of the three largest federal employee health plan options;
•The largest HMO plan offered in the state’s commercial market.

HHS is soliciting public input on this proposal – though comments are due by January 31, 2012. You can send comments to EssentialHealthBenefits@cms.hhs.gov.


Nevin E. Adams, JD


The essential health benefits bulletin is online at http://cciio.cms.gov/resources/files/Files2/12162011/essential_health_benefits_bulletin.pdf

A fact sheet on the essential health benefits bulletin is online at: http://www.healthcare.gov/news/factsheets/2011/12/essential-health-benefits12162011a.html

The Institute of Medicine’s report on Essential Health Benefits is online at http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2011/Essential-Health-Benefits-Balancing-Coverage-and-Cost.aspx

Note: The HHS bulletin addressed only the services and items covered by a health plan, not the cost sharing, such as deductibles, copayments, and coinsurance. HHS noted that the cost-sharing features will be addressed in future bulletins and cost-sharing rules will determine the actuarial value of the plan.

See also Paul Fronstin and Murray N. Ross, “Addressing Health Care Market Reform Through an Insurance Exchange: Essential Policy Components, the Public Plan Option, and Other Issues to Consider,” EBRI Issue Brief, no. 330, June 2009.

(1)Beginning January 1, 2014, qualified health plans sold in health insurance exchanges must cover all essential benefits. In addition, new plans sold in the individual and small group markets must cover essential benefits, regardless of whether plans are sold inside or outside of state health insurance exchanges.

(2) The following benefit classes are identified as essential benefit classes
◦Ambulatory patient services
◦Emergency services
◦Hospitalization
◦Maternity and newborn care
◦Mental health and substance use disorder services, including behavioral health treatment
◦Prescription drugs
◦Rehabilitative and habilitative services and devices
◦Laboratory services
◦Preventive and wellness services and chronic disease management
◦Pediatric services, including oral and vision care

(3) HHS noted that it has considered a report on employer plans submitted by the Department of Labor (DOL), recommendations on the process for defining and updating EHB from the Institute of Medicine (IOM), and input from the public and other interested stakeholders during a series of public listening sessions. In 2010, Paul Fronstin, Ph.D, Director, Health Research & Education Program at the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) was appointed to the Institute of Medicine (IOM) Committee on Determination of Essential Health Benefits. For more information on the essential benefits proposal, you can contact him at Fronstin@ebri.org.

(4) an Illustrative List of the Largest Three Small Group Products by State was just published by HHS at http://cciio.cms.gov/resources/files/Files2/01272012/top_three_plans_by_enrollment_508_20120125.pdf.

Replacement “Window”

There is an old adage that cautions about the consequences “when you assume…”

And yet, the business of retirement planning is replete with any number of so-called “common wisdom” rules of thumb. Doubtless many have well-intentioned origins – to make complicated concepts easier to grasp, and thus to address.

One of the more pervasive notions is that a realistic target for retirement savings can be determined by accumulating a sum that will provide an income stream equal to a percentage of one’s pre-retirement earnings – a sum that is generally expressed as 70-80% of what you earn prior to retirement. This starting point - generally called
a "replacement ratio" - includes any number of imbedded assumptions, perhaps most significantly that the individual will need to spend less post-retirement, generally understood to be on things such as taxes, housing, and various work-related expenses (including saving for retirement).

Moreover, the replacement rate approach represents, at best, an indirect approach in evaluating whether retired workers can maintain their standard of living in retirement – because what matters is not how much you have to spend, but how much you need to spend. A recent research report sponsored by the Society of Actuaries’ Pension Section, “Moving Beyond the Limitations of Traditional Replacement Rates”, also highlights the limitations of relying on replacement rates. A recent paper published by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (“How Much to Save for a Secure Retirement”) acknowledges that “the most direct approach would be a comparison of household consumption while working with consumption after retirement” – before launching into a discussion that instead draws on a relatively simplistic series of assumptions , not the least of which is that the goal of retirement saving is a replacement rate of 80-percent of one’s pre-retirement income.

The problem is that these assumptions are just that – and, as a result, in some cases that 80% will be more than is required – and for some it will, unfortunately, be less. Furthermore, most of the assumptions underpinning such replacement ratio targets are implicitly using a 50 percent probability of success.

Additionally, these replacement rate models tend to ignore one – or more – of the most important retirement risks; investment risk, longevity risk, and risk of potentially catastrophic health care costs.

The reality is that there is no “correct” single replacement rate, but the factors that undermine those simplistic rules of thumb are quantifiable. Those factors, and the importance of probabilities in retirement planning are detailed in “Measuring Retirement Income Adequacy: Calculating Realistic Income Replacement Rates (EBRI Issue Brief No. 297).

After all, it isn’t what you have accumulated at retirement that matters, it’s how much you have left at the end of it.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

'Under' Covered?

One of the more pervasive statistics bandied around about the voluntary retirement system is that only about half of working Americans are covered by a workplace retirement plan.

It’s a data point that is widely and openly presented as fact—not only by those inclined to dismiss the current system as inadequate, but even by some of its most ardent champions, who see that result as a call to action for expanded access to these programs.

There’s only one problem: It doesn’t tell the whole story.

A 2011 EBRI report found that in 2010, 77.6 million workers worked for an employer/union that did not sponsor a retirement plan and 91.0 million workers did not participate in a plan. However, focusing in on employees who did not work for an employer that sponsored a plan, 9.0 million were self‐employed.

Of the remaining 68.5 million:

• 6.2 million were under the age of 21, and
• 3.7 million were age 65 or older.
• 32.0 million (approximately) were not full‐time, full‐year workers, and
• 17.2 million had annual earnings of less than $10,000.

Now, admittedly, many of these workers would fall into several of these categories simultaneously (they might, for instance be under age 21, make less than $10,000 in annual earnings, and not be a full‐time, full‐year worker).

But if you adjust these numbers so that only workers who work full-time, full‐year, make $10,000 or more in annual earnings, and work for an employer with 50 or more employees, only 17.4 million workers (or 26.7 percent) would be included among those working for an employer that did not sponsor a plan.

Of course, another way to look at this last number is that 73.3 percent of these workers with those characteristics worked for an employer that DID sponsor a retirement plan in 2010.

And that’s a lot more than 50 percent.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

Pension Penchants

On Dec. 8, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) convened a forum on “the Future of Pensions.”

The forum was structured around two separate panels of experts (including EBRI President and CEO Dallas Salisbury) who spoke to an audience of pension industry thought leaders on the current retirement landscape, as well as potential enhancements and solutions.

Among the insights/observations shared in the session:

• In 1975, among those over age 65, 23 percent had pension/annuity income; in 2010, that had risen to 33 percent.


• According to EBRI’s Retirement Readiness Rating (RRR) 57 percent of those under age 65 were considered to be at risk of not having sufficient retirement resources to pay for “basic” retirement expenditures and uninsured health care costs, a figure that had declined to 45 percent in 2010.

• In fact, a world in which 30-year job tenure (and associated pension benefit) was never a reality for 80 percent of the nation’s workers. Rather, it was a myth that led “too many to do too little for too long,” leaving many with no retirement resources other than Social Security. Today, more Americans will retire at far more fiscally appropriate times, with more assets from which to draw.

• Financial insecurity looms large, but has increased consumer awareness of the situation, the need to prepare, and the possibility of scaling back retirement expectations.

• Today, about 18 percent of those over age 65 are still in the workforce; 10 years ago, just 11% were.

• People assume they will be able to work longer—but the data indicate they won’t be able to, for reasons outside their control.

• Regulation/legislation does impact/influence the decision by employers to offer workplace retirement plans.

• Employers are rational when it comes to offering benefits—and they consider both shareholder value and employees in their decision-making.

• Employees are also rational when it comes to making decisions; health care a more immediate concern for many than retirement.

• People make rational decisions, but they also tend to be inefficient about those decisions.

• Americans are far too optimistic—they assume that their pay will continue to increase, despite data that indicates that it plateaus for many in their mid-40s. They assume that they will save more later, but they don’t.

• National retirement plan participation rates of 50 percent include workers (part-timers, those under 21) that aren’t normally covered by these plans.

• Health care costs impact certainty/predictability of benefit programs and individual savings rates.

• It’s not how much you have at retirement, it’s how much you have at the end of retirement.

• Guaranteed returns are very expensive.

• The better we understand retirement risks, the better we’ll be able to mitigate them.

• Social Security offers universal defined benefit (DB) coverage—and offers a critical foundation for other retirement solutions to build on.

• If employers are going to take on the risk of offering a DB plan, there has to be some reward beyond just doing right by their retirees.

• Predictability is a key factor in employer decision-making on retirement plan designs.

• Regulations tend to be “one size fits all,” but employers are not, and vary greatly.

• “If you tell employers they can never take it out, they will never put it in.”

• Providing lifetime income in a low interest rate environment is very expensive.

• Employers care about retirement income—don’t drive them away from providing these programs.

• Investment risk, interest rate risk and longevity risk represent the major DB risks for employers. These risks are shifted to workers in the shift to defined contribution (DC) retirement plans, but the impact is very different. Investment risk and interest rate risk have an immediate impact on employer, but not on the individual saver. However, employers have the ability to pool (and thus mitigate) longevity risk—an option not available to individual savers.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

SURVEY SAYS...

One of the things I enjoyed most about writing/publishing NewsDash over a 16-year span (12 years at PLANSPONSOR, and four before that as an internal email) was doing a weekly survey – on a wide variety of topics, both serious – and not-so-serious.

My favorite of the “regular” surveys (and there weren’t many that repeated, even over all that time) was the annual survey of holiday movies. And while there were certain perennial favorites, it seemed like every year there was a real “battle” for the top slot among readers.

As for this year – well, the survey was admittedly a bit ad hoc – but the results were just as fun. So, here’s the top 5:

Christmas Vacation (26.1%)

It’s a Wonderful Life (15.2%)

Elf (13.0%)

How the Grinch Stole Christmas (4.3%)

A Charlie Brown Christmas (4.3%)

…asked to choose a second favorite, It’s a Wonderful Life and Elf tied for first, with 14% of the vote.

You can check out the NewsDash survey from 2010 at http://www.plansponsor.com/SURVEY_SAYS_What_is_Your_Favorite_Holiday_Movie_2010.aspx

Thanks to all who participated in this survey… and to all a good night! Check back here in 2012 for new blog posts…

Naughty? Or Nice?

Editor’s Note: There’s so much going on in the world of retirement saving and investing that I never feel the need (or feel like I have the opportunity) to recycle old columns – but this one has a certain “evergreen” consistency of message that always seems appropriate – particularly at this time of year.

A few years back—when my kids still believed in the reality of Santa Claus—we discovered an ingenious Web site.

This was a Web site that purported to offer a real-time assessment of your "naughty or nice" status.

Now, as Christmas approached, it was not uncommon for us to caution our occasionally misbehaving brood that they had best be attentive to how those actions might be viewed by the big guy at the North Pole. But nothing ever had the impact of that Web site - if not on their behaviors (they're kids, after all), then certainly on the level of their concern about the consequences. In fact, in one of his final years as a "believer," my son (who, it must be acknowledged, had been PARTICULARLY naughty) was on the verge of tears, worried that he'd find nothing under the Christmas tree but the coal and bundle of switches he surely deserved.

Naughty Behaviors?

One might plausibly argue that many participants act as though some kind of benevolent elf will drop down their chimney with a bag full of cold cash from the North Pole. They behave as though, somehow, their bad savings behaviors throughout the year(s) notwithstanding, they'll be able to pull the wool over the eyes of a myopic, portly gentleman in a red snow suit.

Not that they actually believe in a retirement version of St. Nick, but that's essentially how they behave, even though, like my son, a growing number evidence concern about the consequences of their "naughty" behaviors. Also, like my son, they tend to worry about it too late to influence the outcome—and don't change their behaviors in any meaningful way.

Ultimately, the volume of presents under our Christmas tree never really had anything to do with our kids' behavior, of course. As parents, we nurtured their belief in Santa Claus as long as we thought we could (without subjecting them to the ridicule of their classmates), not because we expected it to modify their behavior (though we hoped, from time to time), but because, IMHO, kids should have a chance to believe, if only for a little while, in those kinds of possibilities.

We all live in a world of possibilities, of course. But as adults we realize—or should realize—that those possibilities are frequently bounded in by the reality of our behaviors. This is a season of giving, of coming together, of sharing with others. However, it is also a time of year when we should all be making a list and checking it twice—taking note, and making changes to what is naughty and nice about our savings behaviors.

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus—but he looks a lot like you, assisted by "helpers" like the employer match, your financial adviser, investment markets, and tax incentives.

Happy Holidays!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Naughty or Nice site is STILL online (at http://www.claus.com/naughtyornice/index.php.htm ). An improved site and much better internet connection speeds produce a lightning fast response – more’s the pity. I used to like the sense that someone was actually going to the list, and having to check it twice!