"Managing" Expectations

On March 13,(1) the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Mathew Greenwald & Associates, Inc., will unveil the 22nd annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS)—the longest-running annual retirement survey of its kind in the nation. Indeed, the RCS is unique in offering a perspective on retirement that is now as long as the retirement of those living to average life expectancy at 65.

Consider that back in 1996, the sixth annual RCS found that 24 percent of retirees were not confident that they would have enough money to live comfortably throughout their retirement years, and more than 1 in 5 said their lifestyles were worse than when they first retired (with nearly 1 in 10 calling them "a lot worse"). The report noted that “[t]wo-thirds of those working then predicted they would work after they ‘retire,’ and nearly 40 percent of those say they think they'll need to for financial reasons, to pay the bills and make ends meet.”

Five years later, the 2001 RCS noted that the percentage of individuals who say they have personally saved for retirement decreased from 75 percent in 2000 to 71 percent, though that was still better than the 59 percent cited in 1998. At the time, the RCS noted that the “changes in individual behavior regarding retirement savings may in part be attributed to recent declines in consumer confidence, employment, the economy, and the equity markets.”

While a press release about the 2006 RCS stated that “RCS data over the past 12 years continue to show that retirement confidence overall among workers does not seem to be affected by either stock market performance or varying economic conditions,” subsequent events—notably the 2008 financial crisis—did seem to undermine confidence levels.

The 2010 RCS acknowledged that Americans’ confidence in their ability to afford a comfortable retirement had plunged to a new low at the same time that the recent declines in other retirement confidence indicators appeared to be “stabilizing.” And yet, just one year later, the 2011 RCS cautioned, “Instead of making fundamental adjustments to their spending and saving patterns in response to the decline in confidence, workers continue to change their expectations ”.

How we view—and anticipate—retirement can have a dramatic impact on that reality, and the RCS provides valuable insights into the perspectives of those heading toward, and those already dealing with, the realities of retirement.

What matters, of course, isn’t one’s confidence about having a financially secure retirement. What matters is having taken the time and energy to actually do something about it.

Nevin E. Adams, JD


(1) Full results of the 2012 RCS will be available online at www.ebri.org the morning of Tuesday, March 13.

Pension Penchants

On Dec. 8, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) convened a forum on “the Future of Pensions.”

The forum was structured around two separate panels of experts (including EBRI President and CEO Dallas Salisbury) who spoke to an audience of pension industry thought leaders on the current retirement landscape, as well as potential enhancements and solutions.

Among the insights/observations shared in the session:

• In 1975, among those over age 65, 23 percent had pension/annuity income; in 2010, that had risen to 33 percent.


• According to EBRI’s Retirement Readiness Rating (RRR) 57 percent of those under age 65 were considered to be at risk of not having sufficient retirement resources to pay for “basic” retirement expenditures and uninsured health care costs, a figure that had declined to 45 percent in 2010.

• In fact, a world in which 30-year job tenure (and associated pension benefit) was never a reality for 80 percent of the nation’s workers. Rather, it was a myth that led “too many to do too little for too long,” leaving many with no retirement resources other than Social Security. Today, more Americans will retire at far more fiscally appropriate times, with more assets from which to draw.

• Financial insecurity looms large, but has increased consumer awareness of the situation, the need to prepare, and the possibility of scaling back retirement expectations.

• Today, about 18 percent of those over age 65 are still in the workforce; 10 years ago, just 11% were.

• People assume they will be able to work longer—but the data indicate they won’t be able to, for reasons outside their control.

• Regulation/legislation does impact/influence the decision by employers to offer workplace retirement plans.

• Employers are rational when it comes to offering benefits—and they consider both shareholder value and employees in their decision-making.

• Employees are also rational when it comes to making decisions; health care a more immediate concern for many than retirement.

• People make rational decisions, but they also tend to be inefficient about those decisions.

• Americans are far too optimistic—they assume that their pay will continue to increase, despite data that indicates that it plateaus for many in their mid-40s. They assume that they will save more later, but they don’t.

• National retirement plan participation rates of 50 percent include workers (part-timers, those under 21) that aren’t normally covered by these plans.

• Health care costs impact certainty/predictability of benefit programs and individual savings rates.

• It’s not how much you have at retirement, it’s how much you have at the end of retirement.

• Guaranteed returns are very expensive.

• The better we understand retirement risks, the better we’ll be able to mitigate them.

• Social Security offers universal defined benefit (DB) coverage—and offers a critical foundation for other retirement solutions to build on.

• If employers are going to take on the risk of offering a DB plan, there has to be some reward beyond just doing right by their retirees.

• Predictability is a key factor in employer decision-making on retirement plan designs.

• Regulations tend to be “one size fits all,” but employers are not, and vary greatly.

• “If you tell employers they can never take it out, they will never put it in.”

• Providing lifetime income in a low interest rate environment is very expensive.

• Employers care about retirement income—don’t drive them away from providing these programs.

• Investment risk, interest rate risk and longevity risk represent the major DB risks for employers. These risks are shifted to workers in the shift to defined contribution (DC) retirement plans, but the impact is very different. Investment risk and interest rate risk have an immediate impact on employer, but not on the individual saver. However, employers have the ability to pool (and thus mitigate) longevity risk—an option not available to individual savers.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

Projection Screen

More than the subtleties of the law, the nuances of crafting a cogent legal brief, and the humiliations that often accompany the public exercise of the Socratic method, surely the most intimidating aspect of my law school experience—certainly in the first year—was the grading. In the vast majority of my classes, there were no papers, no mid-term, no pop quizzes; in fact, no tangible means of measuring progress vis-à-vis the expectations of the course. Indeed, in the vast majority of courses, it came down to a single final exam (and an essay exam at that).

Now, there were regular (and, as I recall, fairly prodigious) reading assignments—and there was the omnipresent “fear” of being called on to explain the legal intricacies of a particular case—but, for the very most part, lacking any specific interim evaluations, there were weeks when the press of external events intruded. It was, for some of my classmates, particularly in that critical first year, easy to postpone their preparation until a later day.

Procrastination, of course, is an all-too-common failing of human beings, particularly when it comes to complex financial matters. Indeed, IMHO, too many retirement savers (and certainly most retirement nonsavers) save based on what they think they can afford or on what their employer matches, rather than on the income that savings will generate when they are no longer drawing a paycheck.

While there are any number of innovative calculators and communication devices available at present, they still seem to work best for participants who are willing to take the time to use them. But late last year, lawmakers (specifically, Senators Jeff Bingaman (D-New Mexico), Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia), and Herb Kohl (D-Wisconsin)) introduced legislation that would require defined contribution plan sponsors to inform plan participants of the projected monthly income they could expect at retirement, based on their current account balance (see Bill Would Require Disclosure of Participants' Expected Retirement Income).

Now, as a general rule, I’m leery about government-mandated disclosures, which tend to cost more and inform less than their erstwhile sponsors surely intend (“of the lawyers, by the lawyers, for the lawyers” is how they usually seem to turn out, IMHO). But this could well be an exception.

The sponsors of the Lifetime Income Disclosure Act have directed the Department of Labor to issue tables that employers may use in calculating an annuity equivalent, as well as a model disclosure—and they have provided that employers and service providers who rely on those materials would be insulated from liability arising from those disclosures.

There will, of course, be some issues. The legislation outlines assumptions that include payment as a joint and survivor annuity, and that each participant has a spouse of their same age—assumptions that certainly won’t apply in every case. It may well be that the model disclosure—though the legislation directs that it be able to be “understood by the average plan participant”—will wind up being an unintelligible morass of caveats and conditions (yes, “of the lawyers, by the lawyers, for the lawyers”). It is possible that the costs of preparing and producing that communication will countermand their benefit. It is even conceivable that seeing that particular number in black and white will only serve to undermine, not inspire, a greater appreciation for these programs (projections in a similar vein years ago didn’t do much to inspire an appreciation for my pension benefits).

That said, decades of saving for retirement is for naught if it fails to provide income for retirement, and the challenge of getting to retirement on a limited budget surely pales in comparison to the challenges of trying to get through retirement with those strictures. Knowing how much your current savings level might actually produce in retirement income dollars may only be part of that equation, but, IMHO, it’s a critically important component. Like any meaningful long-term savings goal—a house, a car, a college education—you need to know the target if you are to have a chance of hitting it. And seeing a clear, consistent estimate of what your current savings will amount to post-retirement seems to be a positive step in that direction.

To paraphrase Yogi Berra, if you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else. And for tomorrow’s retirees, that could be a failing grade.

—Nevin E. Adams, JD

More information on the Lifetime Income Disclosure Act is available at http://www.plansponsor.com/Bill_Would_Require_Disclosure_of_Participants_Expected_Retirement_Income.aspx

http://bingaman.senate.gov/policy/erisa.pdf