Could the Super Bowl Batter or Burnish Your 401(k)?

Will your 401(k) be bumped up by a Buccaneers victory—or chipped by the Chiefs?

That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory would likely conclude, after all. The theory is that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall.

It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 40 of the 54 Super Bowls, in fact. 

Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need look back no further than last year’s win by the AFC’s Kansas City Chiefs (yes, these Kansas City Chiefs) over the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers to refute the applicability (or did your 401(k) miss that 18.4% rise in the S&P 500?). Or how about the year before that when the AFC’s New England Patriots (who once were the AFL’s Boston Patriots) bested the NFC champion Los Angeles Rams (the S&P 500 was up more than 30% in 2019).

Or, looking the other way, the year before that a win by the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles against the AFC Champion Patriots turned out to be a loser, marketwise, with the S&P 500 down more than 6% (though for most of the year it was quite a different story). Ditto the year before when the epic comeback by those same AFC Champion Patriots against the then-NFC champion Atlanta Falcons failed to forestall a 2017 market surge. 

Now, one might think that the real “spoiler” to this market “theory” is the New England Patriots—but the year before that, the AFC’s (and original AFL) Broncos’ 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers, who represented the NFC, also proved to be an “exception.”

Market Makings

You might well wonder why, in view of that consistent string of “exceptions” that we’re still talking about this “theory”—but, as it turns out, that’s been an unusual (albeit consistent) break in the streak that was sustained in 2015 following Super Bowl XLIX, when the AFC’s New England Patriots (yes, they show up a lot) bested the Seattle Seahawks 28-24 to earn their fourth Super Bowl title. It also “worked” in 2014, when the Seahawks bumped off the legacy AFL Denver Broncos, and in 2013, when a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback rescued a victory by the Baltimore Ravens– who, though representing the AFC, are technically a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Browns roots (yes, they moved to Baltimore in 1995—though the NFL still views them as an expansion team—filling the hole left by the Colts’ 1984 “dead of night” move to Indianapolis. The Browns, sadly, are still waiting for a Super Bowl trip[i]). 

Admittedly, the fact that the markets fared well in 2013 was hardly a true test of the Super Bowl Theory since, as it turned out, both teams in Super Bowl XLVII—the Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers—were NFL legacy teams.

However, consider that in 2012 a team from the old NFL (the New York Giants) took on—and took down—one from the old AFL (the New England Patriots—yes, those New England Patriots). And, in fact, 2012 was a pretty good year for stocks.

Steel ‘Curtains’?

On the other hand, the year before that, the Pittsburgh Steelers (representing the American Football Conference) took on the National Football Conference’s Green Bay Packers—two teams that had some of the oldest, deepest and, yes, most “storied” NFL roots, with the Steelers formed in 1933 (as the Pittsburgh Pirates) and the Packers founded in 1919. According to the Super Bowl Theory, 2011 should have been a good year for stocks (because, regardless of who won, a legacy NFL team would prevail). 

But as some may recall, while the Dow gained ground for the year, the S&P 500 was, well, flat.

And then there was the string of Super Bowls where the contests were all between legacy NFL teams (thus, no matter who won, the markets should have risen):

• 2006, when the Steelers bested the Seattle Seahawks;
• 2007, when the Indianapolis Colts (those old Baltimore Colts) beat the Chicago Bears 29-17;
• 2009, when the Pittsburgh Steelers took on the Arizona Cardinals (who had once been the NFL’s St. Louis Cardinals); and
• 2010, when the New Orleans Saints bested the Indianapolis Colts, who, as we’ve already noted, had roots dating back to the NFL legacy Baltimore Colts.

Sure enough, the markets were higher in each of those years.

As for 2008? Well, that was the year that the NFC’s New York Giants upended the hopes of the AFL-legacy Patriots (yes, those Patriots) for a perfect season, but it didn’t do any favors for the stock market. In fact, that was the last time that the Super Bowl Theory didn’t “work” (well, until this past year—oh, and the year before that—and the year before…).

Patriot Gains

Times were better for Patriots fans in 2005, when they bested the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles 24-21. Indeed, according to the Super Bowl Theory, the markets should have been down that year—but the S&P 500 rose 2.55%.

Of course, Super Bowl Theory proponents would tell you that the 2002 win by the New England Patriots accurately foretold the continuation of the bear market into a third year (at the time, the first accurate result in five years). But the Patriots’ 2004 Super Bowl win against the Carolina Panthers (the one that probably nobody except Patriots fans and disappointed Panthers advocates remember because it was overshadowed by Janet Jackson’s infamous “wardrobe malfunction”) failed to anticipate a fall rally that helped push the S&P 500 to a near 9% gain that year, sacking the indicator for another loss (couldn’t resist).

Bronco ‘Busters’

Consider also that despite victories by the AFL-legacy Denver Broncos in 1998 and 1999, the S&P 500 continued its winning ways, while victories by the NFL-legacy St. Louis (by way of Los Angeles) Rams (that have since returned to the City of Angels) and the Baltimore Ravens (those former “Browns”) did nothing to dispel the bear markets of 2000 and 2001, respectively.

In fact, the Super Bowl Theory “worked” 28 times between 1967 and 1997, then went 0-4 between 1998 and 2001, only to get back on track from 2002 on (though “purists” still dispute how to interpret Tampa Bay’s 2003 victory, since the Buccaneers spent their first NFL season in the AFC before moving to the NFC). 

Indeed, the Buccaneers’ move to the NFC was part of a swap with the Seattle Seahawks, who did, in fact, enter the NFL as an NFC team in 1976 but shuttled quickly over to the AFC (where they remained through 2001) before returning to the NFC.[ii] And, not having entered the league until 1976, regardless of when they began, can the Seahawks truly be considered a “legacy” NFL squad? 

Bear in mind as well, that in 2006, when the Seahawks made their first Super Bowl appearance—and lost—the S&P 500 gained nearly 16%.

As for Sunday’s contest, the Buccaneers have been here before—but while it’s been a while for the team, QB Tom Brady certainly knows his way around a Super Bowl (playing in nine of them—and with this one, regardless of outcome, he’ll be the oldest player to suit up for that game)—and they’re not only the home team, they’re actually the first home team in Super Bowl history to actually play in their home stadium. Just to confuse matters a bit, they have exercised their prerogative as the home team to choose their jersey—and they have elected to wear their white “away” jerseys (and pewter pants). That happens to be the jersey they have won throughout the playoffs, having played all of their games to this point “on the road”—the first wild card team to make it to the Super Bowl since the 2010-11 Green Bay Packers. 

The Chiefs have been here before as well—as recently as a year ago (though before that, not since Super Bowl IV), and they’ll be wearing the same red “home” jerseys (and white pants) they wore in Super Bowl 54. In case you’re wondering why that matters, dating back to 2005 with the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX, the team wearing white jerseys has won 12 times. Though not last year, of course.

All in all, it looks like it should be a good game. 

And that—whether you are a proponent of the Super Bowl Theory or not—would be one in which regardless of which team wins, we all do!

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i] Four current NFL teams have never appeared in a Super Bowl, including franchises that have relocated or been renamed: the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans, though both the Browns (1950, 1954, 1955, 1964) and Lions (1935, 1952, 1953, 1957) had won NFL Championship Games prior to the advent of the Super Bowl.

[ii] Note: Seattle is the only team to have played in both the AFC and NFC Championship games, having relocated from the AFC to the NFC during league realignment prior to the 2002 season. The Seahawks are the only NFL team to switch conferences twice in the post-merger era. The franchise began play in 1976 in the NFC West division but switched conferences with the Buccaneers after one season and joined the AFC West.

5 Things You CAN Do After a Market Correction

By now, you’ve heard — and perhaps dispensed — what appears to be the “common wisdom” about the recent market tumult: “stay the course,” “ride it out,” and my personal favorite, “don’t just do something, stand there.”

For all our industry’s long-standing concern about participant inertia, in times like these the inclination to “do nothing” is undoubtedly to the benefit of most participants. That said, one can well imagine that those who are turning to their advisors for help and guidance (wonder what the robo-advisors are saying?) might be a little frustrated with the admonition that the best thing for them to do right now is… nothing.

Early indications are that most retirement plan participants will — again — ride this one out (though there are some exceptions. But, hey — while the markets have your attention, here are five things participants can, and should, do:

Check your account balance. While a lot of experts will tell you to avoid looking at your account right after a big drop in the markets, if you’re making individual fund choices, it’s probably worth checking out how your account is currently invested. If you haven’t checked in a while, you might find that it’s gotten “out of balance” from your original investment selections.

Get started on rebalancing. While this may not be a great time to rebalance your entire account, you can start by changing the investment elections of new contributions, rather than transferring existing balances. It will take longer to realign the entire account, but at least you aren’t realizing those as-yet-unrealized losses.

Increase your current deferral rate. This is the biggie. When you think about just how much cheaper those retirement plan investments are compared with a few days ago, it’s hard to pass up that kind of bargain. More so if you aren’t yet saving at the maximum level of the match.

Look into automated rebalancing. If you still make and maintain individual investment fund choices in your retirement account, it can be hard to pick the best time to make a change. (Hint: a period of extreme market volatility is almost never the best time.) However, the vast majority of providers now have in place mechanisms that will, at some preset frequency (e.g., monthly, quarterly, or annual), automatically rebalance those accounts in accordance with your established investment elections. It’s a good way to keep things in balance without having to worry (or remember) about it.

Think about getting some professional help. Odds are, even if you like keeping up with the markets, it’s not your day job. A good, trusted advisor is always a great option, but you might find it useful to look into a solution that is professionally managed all the time — such as a balanced fund, target-date fund or managed account option.

So, yes, there are some things you can do after a market correction, or even on a regular basis. And one more thing: There’s no time like the present.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

Stocks Swayed by the Super Bowl?

Will your portfolio soar with the Seahawks, or get kicked by the Broncos? 

That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory—which maintains that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, whereas should a team from the old American Football League prevail, stock prices would be expected to fall—would likely predict.

Sure enough, last year’s victory by the Baltimore Ravens (who, it might be recalled, are really a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Brown roots) coincided with a 29.6 percent gain for the S&P 500.  Moreover, the indicator has been correct 37 of the last 47 years, or nearly 79 percent of the time.

Not only has the Super Bowl Indicator consistently predicted the direction of the market, but returns when the old NFL wins and when the AFL wins are dramatically different, according to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, which notes that the Dow has averaged a healthy 11.6 percent return in years in which the old NFL wins the Super Bowl and has declined by an average of 0.74 percent in years in which the old AFL prevailed.

Fare Way?

That the markets fared well in 2013 was hardly a true test of the Super Bowl Theory since, as it turned out, both teams in Super Bowl XLVII—the Baltimore Ravens (by way of NFL legacy Cleveland Browns) and the San Francisco 49ers—were NFL legacy, and thus an NFL legacy team would win regardless of the end result.

Of course, looking back over the years, the record is a bit, shall we say, “inconsistent.”  Consider that in 2012 a team from the old NFL (the NY Giants) took on—and took down—one from the old AFL (the New England Patriots, who once were the AFL’s Boston Patriots).  And, in fact, 2012 was a pretty good year for stocks. 

The year before that, the Pittsburgh Steelers (representing the American Football Conference) took on the National Football Conference’s Green Bay Packers—two teams that had some of the oldest, deepest and, yes, most “storied” NFL roots, with the Steelers formed in 1933 (as the Pittsburgh Pirates) and the Packers, founded in 1919. So, according to the Super Bowl Theory, 2011 should have been a good year for stocks (because, regardless of who won, an NFL team would prevail). But as you may recall, while the Dow gained ground for the year, the S&P 500 was, well, flat.

On the other hand, 2010 turned out pretty well for the markets—a year when the New Orleans Saints bested the Indianapolis Colts, though it was, after all, another Super Bowl featuring two teams with NFL roots (the Colts by way of the storied Baltimore Colts franchise).  That was also the case in 2009 when both the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers shared NFL roots (the Arizona Cardinals by way of once upon a time being the St. Louis Cardinals), AND in 2007, when the S&P 500 rose 3.53 percent as the Indianapolis Colts beat the NFL legacy Chicago Bears 29-17, as well as in 2006 when the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated these same Seattle Seahawks; that turned out to be a good year for equities, with the S&P 500 closing up more than 13 percent.

Patriot Gains

Times were better for Patriots fans in 2005 when they bested the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles 24-21. According to the Super Bowl Theory, the markets should have been down for the year. However, in 2005 the S&P 500 climbed 2.55 percent.   

Of course, the 2002 win by those same New England Patriots accurately foretold the continuation of the bear market into a third year (at the time, the first accurate result in five years). But the Patriots’ 2004 Super Bowl win against the Carolina Panthers failed to anticipate a fall rally that helped push the S&P 500 to a near 9 percent gain that year, sacking the indicator for another loss.

Consider also that, despite victories by these same (AFL legacy) Denver Broncos in 1998 and 1999, the S&P 500 continued its winning ways, while victories by the NFL legacy St. Louis (by way of Los Angeles) Rams and the Baltimore Ravens, did nothing to dispel the bear markets of 2000 and 2001, respectively.

In fact, the Super Bowl Theory “worked” 28 times between 1967 and 1997, then went 0-4 between 1998 and 2001, only to get back on track from 2002 on (purists still dispute how to interpret Tampa Bay’s victory in 2003, since the Buccaneers spent their first NFL season in the AFC before moving to the NFC).

Indeed, the Buccaneers’ move to the NFC was part of a swap with the Seattle Seahawks, who did, in fact, enter the NFL as an NFC team in 1976 but shuttled quickly over to the AFC (where they remained through 2001) before returning to the NFC(1). 

And, not having entered the league until 1976, wherever they began, can the Seahawks truly be considered a “legacy” NFL squad?

Investor adherents to this market theory are presumed to be pulling for the NFC’s Seahawks over the old AFL (and new AFC Champion) Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.  On the other hand, when Denver won its back-to-back Super Bowls in 1998 and 1999 (2), the Dow and S&P did pretty well; and in 2006—when the Seahawks made their only other Super Bowl appearance and lost—the S&P 500 gained nearly 16 percent. 

Regardless, it looks like it could be a good game—and whether you are a proponent of the Super Bowl Theory or not, would be one in which whoever wins, we all will!

-          Nevin E. Adams, JD

(1) In fact, Seattle is the only team to have played in both the AFC and NFC Championship Games, having relocated from the AFC to the NFC during league realignment prior to the 2002 season. The Seahawks are the only NFL team to switch conferences twice in the post-merger era. The franchise began play in 1976 in the NFC West division but switched conferences with the Buccaneers after one season and joined the AFC West.

(2) Ignoring, of course, the Super Bowls Denver lost (and the markets “won”) in 1978, 1987, and 1988 and 1989 – the latter still the widest margin of loss (55-10) in Super Bowl history)