Friday, September 11, 2026

When Memory Becomes History

 A quarter-century is a long time.

Long enough for children born after Sept. 11, 2001, to have now finished college, entered the workforce and begun building lives and families of their own.   

Long enough for the images that remain painfully vivid to some of us to have become history to millions of others.

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But 25 years is not long enough to forget.

Those of us who lived through that day still remember where we were when we heard — or, perhaps more accurately, when we finally understood. We remember the images, the uncertainty and the urgent need to hear the voices of those we loved. We remember a day on which thousands of people left home for an ordinary Tuesday and never returned.

As it happened — and I have shared this story before — I was travelling from one coast to the other — heading to speak at a conference early on that bright Tuesday morning in 2001. In fact, I was in the middle of that cross-country flight, literally running from one terminal to another in Dallas, Texas when my cellphone rang. I was annoyed — the hour was early, my flight in had been late, and the timing between that and my connection was uncomfortably short — particularly for a flight that was in another terminal. 


The call was from my wife — I assumed she was simply checking to see if I had landed safely — and she was, though not for the reasons I thought. See, I had been on an American Airlines flight heading for Los Angeles, after all — and at that time, not much else was known about the first plane that struck the World Trade Center beyond it being an American Airlines flight headed to LA. I was breathless — could hardly make out what she was saying from the noise in the terminal. I was sure I was misunderstanding what she claimed to have seen on TV.

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Would that I had…

And then as I slowed, for the first time it sank in — and I saw what my subconscious mind had seen, but not registered — the crowds surrounding the TV monitors throughout the terminal.

My first thought was to try and get on a flight back home — fortunately my travel agent’s first thought was to get me a hotel room. They’d be in short supply shortly — and, sure enough, on that most awful of days — I wound up stranded in a hotel room hundreds of insurmountable miles away from family and friends. It was, without a doubt, the longest day — and loneliest night — of my life.

In fact, I was to spend the next several days at that Dallas hotel. There were no planes flying, no rental cars to be had — nowhere to go for what turned out to be three interminably long days. As that long week drew to a close, I was finally able to get a rental car and begin a long two-day journey home. It was a long, lonely drive, but one that gave me a lot of time to think, though most of that drive was a blur, just mile after endless mile of open road with nothing but AM talk radio to fill the void.

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And then, somewhere in a remote section of Arkansas, I spotted something approaching in my rearview mirror. There hadn’t been much traffic on the road — in fact, it had been a couple of hours since I had seen anyone at all, so the movement caught my eye. As they came into focus, I saw it was a group of bikers — at least a couple of dozen of them, spread out across the highway — led by a particularly “scruffy” looking guy with a long beard and lots of menacing tattoos on a big bike. Out in the middle of nowhere, all alone on this deserted highway — well, I was nervous to say the least as they pulled alongside.

And then, as the lead cyclist pulled past me, I saw unfurled behind him on that big bike an enormous American flag.

At that moment, for the first time in 72 hours, I felt a sense of peace — the comfort you feel inside when you know you are going … home.

Twenty-five years later, the memories remain vivid for those of us who were there — but memory is inevitably personal, imperfect and perishable. That is why remembering cannot be left only to those who remember.

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We must tell the stories — not merely of how the attacks happened, but of the lives lost, the courage displayed and the countless acts of kindness that followed. We must explain to those who weren’t yet born why an enormous flag carried by a stranger on an empty Arkansas highway could bring comfort to someone desperate to get home.

On not a few mornings since that awful September day, I’ve thought about how many went to work, how many boarded a plane, not realizing that they would not get to come home —not just that day, but ever again. How many sacrificed their lives so that others could go home. And how many still put their lives on the line every day, here and abroad, to keep us safe.

We take a lot for granted in this life, perhaps nothing more cavalierly than the assumption that there will always be a tomorrow — to set the record straight, to right a wrong, or simply to tell those we love how precious they are.

A quarter-century later, let’s remember those who never made it home. Let’s treasure those with whom we are still fortunate enough to share ours.

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And — for the sake of those who can’t remember that day — let’s keep telling them why they should.

Never forget.

  • Nevin E. Adams, JD

Saturday, September 05, 2026

‘Success,’ More or Less?

 What does it mean to have a 75% probability of success?

I’ve never been particularly fond of the probability-of-success measures commonly used in retirement planning. It’s not that the calculations aren’t useful — or that I have a better crystal ball. I’m just not convinced that most people understand what the resulting percentage means, much less how to apply it to their retirement decisions.

After all, a 75% probability of success sounds like a grade — and not a particularly good one. It also sounds as though there is a 25% chance that your retirement will be a complete and unmitigated failure. Neither interpretation is necessarily accurate.

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A new paper from David Blanchett at PGIM, aptly titled “Successfully Failing,” takes on that conventional measure and suggests that it may not simply be confusing. It may actually lead retirees — and those advising them — to make less-than-optimal decisions.

Success ‘Measures’

Probability-of-success calculations generally run a retirement strategy through hundreds or thousands of different scenarios. If the retiree’s assets last through the prescribed retirement period, the scenario is labeled a success. If the money runs out before the end, it is deemed a failure. 

It’s all — or nothing.

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A scenario that comes up $1 short is a failure. So is one that comes up $100,000 short. A portfolio exhausted in the final month of a 30-year retirement receives the same failing grade as one depleted after 15 years.

For that matter, the success side can be just as uninformative. A plan that finishes the period with $1 remaining is successful. So is one that leaves the retiree with $1 million —though those outcomes may say very different things about how much the retiree could have enjoyed spending along the way.

In effect, probability of success answers one narrowly defined question: In how many of our modeled scenarios did the portfolio avoid hitting zero before a date we selected? That may be useful information for academics or retirement planners, but it doesn’t strike me as the question actual people are trying to answer.

Goal ‘Oriented?’

Blanchett suggests an alternative: goal completion percentage. Rather than sorting every outcome into one of two buckets — success or failure — it measures how much of the desired spending was actually funded.

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Consider the paper’s simple example: a retiree wants to generate $100 annually for 10 years. Across 10 modeled scenarios, only half provide the entire $1,000. That produces a probability of success of just 50% — a number likely to send most retirees scrambling for the nearest spending cut. And yet, averaged across those same scenarios, 96% of the desired spending is funded.

Same assumptions. Same outcomes. Very different — and arguably much more useful —description of the result.

Most people can probably get their arms around being able to fund 96% of what they hope to spend. They can consider what comprises the other 4%, whether they are willing to do without it and what adjustments might close the gap. That seems more tangible than being told that their retirement plan has a 50% chance of “failure.”

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It also acknowledges something these models frequently overlook: retirees (not to mention non-retirees) don’t generally set a spending plan on the day they retire and then blindly follow it for the next 30 years. They adjust. They postpone a trip, replace a car later than anticipated, reduce gifts or make other changes as their circumstances evolve. A disappointing market doesn’t automatically cause them to spend their portfolio down to zero without noticing.

Indeed, Blanchett estimates that viewing the same risks through goal completion rather than a traditional probability-of-success threshold could allow some retirees to spend 20% more without taking on additional risk. That is potentially a significant improvement in retirement — not because the investments performed better, but because the measurement did. Not to mention the understanding of what the measurement means.

Successfully ‘Failing?’

That said, goal completion percentage isn’t a perfect measure. Knowing that a plan funds 90% of projected spending still doesn’t tell us when the shortfall occurs — or what kind of spending will have to be sacrificed. Funding 90% of a budget containing substantial discretionary travel is different from funding 90% of one already pared down to food, shelter and healthcare.

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Still, it gives retirees something that probability of success generally doesn’t: a sense of the size of the potential problem. And that creates an opportunity to make informed choices rather than merely reacting to the absolutism of a passing or failing grade.

After all, a retirement that delivers 96% of what you hoped for may technically have “failed” by some measures.

But a measurement that can’t help folks distinguish that kind of outcome from financial catastrophe surely has.

  • Nevin E. Adams, JD