Showing posts with label bad assumptions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bad assumptions. Show all posts

Saturday, May 16, 2020

A Bad Example

You have to hand it to the Washington Post. At a time when millions of working Americans are finding a financial lifeline in their retirement savings, they managed to find in the questionable life choices of a half dozen individuals a condemnation of the nation’s private retirement system.

The piece, laboriously titled “Millions of baby boomers are getting caught in the country’s broken retirement system” is light (and selective) on data (they managed to get hold of a 2016 report by the Economic Policy Institute subtitled “How 401(k)s have failed most American workers,” some datapoints from the National Institute on Retirement Security (for those who have forgotten some of the issues with their database, see Data ‘Minding’” and a couple of quotes from none other than Teresa Ghilarducci). Indeed, the article isn’t really about factual data; rather it’s mostly reliant on the anecdotes of six individuals the author has somehow stumbled upon.

Weirdly, the article’s author (who is said to cover energy as his regular beat) does manage to find a kind of silver lining in these individuals’ predicaments, noting that “the coronavirus pandemic has scrambled the lives of these six boomers just as it has everyone else’s, though with no savings to worry about at least it hasn’t directly hurt them financially.”

And while the article claims that “none of these stories is an outlier,” well—judge for yourself.

One 70-year-old “had some good jobs over the years,” but her two divorces “involved lawyers, the need to set up new households, and a general drain on savings.” She admits that “I would rather be happy today than miserable 25 years from now. And so I made choices based on that rather than on the economics, which, you know, one could argue fairly successfully that I made some pretty stupid decisions.”

Another says he came down with non-Hodgkins lymphoma, figured he didn’t have long to live and was fed up anyway with life in “corporate America”—and so “retired”… at age 52. Thereafter he says he sold his house and cashed in his 401(k), which had about $100,000 in it, wound up stuck with back taxes, penalties and the like, but also bought a new car, gave some money to family members who needed it and, yes, went on a cruise because he thought he’d die soon. He admits, “I went through a lot of money very quickly.”

Other examples cited one individual who chose to pursue passion—and traded full-time employment for part-time—living in Manhattan. Another, a former truck driver, retired at 62—with $10,000 in his 401(k)—opting to retire now “because my body’s been beat up so bad after 40 years of driving.”

Not to demean or dismiss the financial hardships of the individuals chronicled in the article, but it was hard not to see in nearly all of these stories an abundance of personal choices that lead to their post-retirement “plight.” A point that the individuals featured make no bones about.

It’s not like dissing the retirement system or the 401(k) is a new “sport” for the media. And let's be honest - some will run short of money in retirement, and some—like the individuals featured in the article—may well be forced to make the tough decisions late in life that different decisions earlier could have forestalled.

It may not be the lifestyle they might choose, but many will nonetheless be able to replicate a respectable portion of their pre-retirement income levels, certainly if the support of Social Security is maintained at current levels. In fact, an analysis in 2014 by the non-partisan Employee Benefit Research Institute found that current levels of Social Security benefits, coupled with at least 30 years of 401(k) savings eligibility, could provide most workers—between 83% and 86% of them, in fact—with an annual income of at least 60% of their preretirement pay on an inflation-adjusted basis. Even at an 80% replacement rate, a full two-thirds (67%) of the lowest-income quartile would still meet that threshold—and that’s making no assumptions about the impact of plan design features like automatic enrollment and annual contribution acceleration.

It would be naïve to argue that the voluntary nature of the 401(k) design works for everyone, certainly not for those who don’t take advantage of the option, and it most assuredly won’t work for those who don’t have access to its benefits. That said, 401(k)s are working for far more people and in much more varied circumstances than the fear-mongering headlines acknowledge. It’s one thing, after all, to acquiesce to what has become a journalistic “creed”—that “if it bleeds, it leads”—and something else again to wield the knife.

It’s well past time to call out these reports—that “normalize” these “bad” examples—for what they really are: at best a naïve and misinformed parroting of surveys with questionable samplings and methodologies, and at worst serving as the agent of a long-standing and deliberately intentioned “plot” to kill the 401(k). They do so first by undermining its value, discounting and demeaning the modest tax deferrals that encourage most who have access to such programs to set aside their natural preferences for spending—and then discrediting as “rich”[i] those who do take advantage of the option and make thoughtful preparations for retirement (and who, ironically, may well wind up supporting those who didn’t via higher tax burdens because they actually have retirement income).

It’s been said that “a lie unchallenged becomes the truth.” If those of us who know better don’t start speaking up—and speaking out—you can bet that the drumbeat of coverage about the failure of the 401(k) will one day become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

[i]You don’t have to be rich to do so—even among modest income workers ($30,000-$50,000/year), we’ve seen that workers are 12 times more likely to save via a workplace retirement plan than to open that individual IRA.

Saturday, August 24, 2019

6 Things That People Get Wrong About Retirement

Retirement planning can be a complicated process – and surveys suggest that most workers haven’t even attempted a guess. But even those who have can overlook some pretty significant factors that can have a dramatic impact on retirement readiness.

Here are some critical factors that are easy to get “wrong.”

The Cost of Inflation

Twenty or 30 years from now, prices are likely to be different than they are today, and for many, those prices will increase – and perhaps particularly costs of critical life aspects like health care. Consider that, overall, the average inflation rate for 2018 was 1.9%. It’s not that all prices will always go up – but they often do, and might increase faster than your income. Think of it as the “magic of compounding’s” evil twin…

There’s a calculator that you might find interesting at http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/.

The Cost of Taxes

A key part of the incentive for retirement saving in a 401(k) is the ability to postpone paying taxes on those salary deferrals. The operative word there is, of course, “postpone.” Sure enough, as those retirement savings are withdrawn in retirement, you can bet that Uncle Sam will be expecting his cut – and on a frequency dictated by the required minimum distribution schedules of the IRS.

In fact, every time I see one of those reports about the average 401(k) account balances of those in their 60s, I can’t help but think that somewhere between 15% and 30%, and perhaps more – won’t go toward financing retirement, but will instead go to Uncle Sam and his state and municiple counterparts.

After all, that’s one of those pre-retirement expenses that doesn’t end at retirement. And, while it may well be at lower rates than when it was deferred pre-tax – it may not be.

The Cost of Long-Term Care

Long-term care is one of those retirement cost variables that can be very complicated to predict – which perhaps explains why the vast majority of retirement needs projections models fail to take it into account (the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s being a notable exception). The data suggests that most of us will have some exposure to this risk – but also suggests that only a minority will get hit with a truly catastrophic bill against their retirement savings.

The question is, which group will you fall within? And can you afford to be wrong? 

What You’ll Get from Social Security

Ask any young worker today about their expectations regarding Social Security, and you’ll likely encounter a fair amount of skepticism; a recent Pew Research report notes that roughly half of Americans (48%) who are younger than 50 expect to receive no Social Security benefits when they retire. Indeed, according to the 2018 Retirement Confidence Survey published by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, today’s workers are almost half as likely to expect Social Security to be a major source of income in retirement (36%) as today’s retirees are to report that Social Security is currently a major source of income (67%).

As things stand today, Social Security’s future is far from certain, though even under a worst case scenario, retirees are likely looking at a reduction, rather than a cessation of benefits. That said, as things stand now, those who retire at full retirement age today would be looking at a maximum of….

When You’ll Retire

Perhaps the most important assumption is when you plan to quit working; today most Americans are doing so at 62, though 65 seems to be the most common assumption – and while using 70 (or later) will surely boost your projected outcomes (it both gives you more time to save, and reduces the time that you will be drawing down those savings), it may not be realistic for many individuals. The 2019 Retirement Confidence Survey found that more than 3 in 10 (34%) workers expect to retire at 70 or beyond or not at all, while only 6% of retirees report this was the case.

In fact, the RCS has consistently found that a large percentage of retirees leave the workforce earlier than planned (43% in the 2019 RCS). Many who retired earlier than planned did so because of a hardship, such as a health problem or disability (35%), and a similar number did so due to changes at their company (35%) – in other words, events not within their control, and likely not foreseeable (admittedly, 33% did so because they could afford to do so).

The bottom line: Even if you plan to work longer, the timing of your “retirement” may not be your choice.

How Long Your Retirement Will Last

Needless to say, the sooner your retirement starts, the longer it might last. But the length of retirement is also a function of what the academics refer to as “longevity,” and what regular people call “life.” 
Indeed, the good news we are living longer – but that means that retirements can last longer, and medical costs can run higher. And while we’re living longer, studies indicate that we tend to underestimate how much longer we will live. The Social Security Administration notes[i]that a man reaching age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 84; a woman turning age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 86.5.

But those are just averages; about one out of every three 65-year-olds today will live past age 90, and one in seven will live past age 95.

Though it’s also worth noting that the averages include a fair number of individuals who won’t make it that “far.”

Ultimately, of course, it’s not what you get wrong about life and retirement – it’s what, and how much, you get right.
 
- Nevin E. Adams, JD


[i]The Social Security Administration has an online calculator that, based only on gender and birth date (and there are a lot of additional factors to consider), can provide a high-level estimate.