(A Little More) Room to Grow

 Several years ago, we had in mind that it would be fun to get an aquarium for our home, and (even) I got excited at the prospects of filling it with a variety of all kinds and sizes of exotic fish. 

Sadly, those hopes were dashed when I discovered that , despite the massive displays of what appeared to be whole schools of fish in similarly sized tanks at the pet store, our specific-sized tank would only support a handful of the fish I had hoped to display. Apparently, the more fish you want to have (that live), the bigger the tank you need. The reason: they need room to thrive and grow.

At long last the IRS last week announced the new contribution and benefit limits for 2022. Considering the run-up in inflation this year, expectations were similarly high for increases in those limits. And sure enough, among other things, the 401(k) limit was bumped $1,000 (to $20,500) and the defined benefit plan limit rose from $230,000 to $245,000, though the limit for catch-up contribution held level at $6,500. 

At the outset, it’s worth remembering that these adjustments only reflect increases in the cost of living—basically an acknowledgement that the costs of living in retirement change over time, that they increase due to inflation—and that they are timed in such a way that those increases must accumulate to a certain level before that acknowledgement in the form of increased levels kicks in.

But since industry surveys[i] suggest that “only” about 9%-12% currently contribute to those levels, does it matter? And why don’t more people max out on those contributions? Well, cynics might say it’s because only the wealthy can afford to set aside that much.[ii] But Vanguard’s data suggests that only about half (56%) of even those workers making more than $150,000 a year maxed out their contributions. If these limits and incentives work only to the advantage of the well-off, why aren’t more maxing out?

Limit ‘Ed’

Those who look only at the outside of the current tax incentives generally gloss over the reality that there are a whole series of benefit/contribution limits and nondiscrimination test requirements. These rules are, by their very design, intended to maintain a balance between the benefits that these programs provide between more highly compensated individuals and the rest of the plan participants (those rules also help to ensure a broad-based eligibility for these programs). Almost assuredly those limits are working to cap the contributions of individuals who would certainly like to put more aside, if the combination of laws and limits allowed.[iii]

But let’s think for a minute about a group that doesn’t get nearly enough attention: the group— millions of working Americans, in fact—who are not wealthy by any objective measure, but earn enough that Social Security won’t come close to replicating their pre-retirement income. These middle and upper-middle income individuals apparently aren’t the concern of those who want to do away with the 401(k)—but these are the individuals who in many, if not most, situations, not only make the decision to sponsor these plans in the first place—they make the ongoing financial commit to make an employer match.

If nothing else, allowing those contribution limits to keep pace with inflation—like the right-sized aquarium—provides us all not only with a little more room to grow our retirement savings—but reminds us (all) of the opportunity to do so.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i] According to Vanguard, during 2020, 12% of participants saved the statutory maximum dollar amount of $19,500 ($26,000 for participants age 50 or older). Fifty-six percent of participants with an income of more than $150,000 contributed the maximum allowed. 

[ii] Setting aside for a minute that $20,000/year likely won’t make much of a dent in the replacement rate for a wealthy individual.

[iii] For some additional validation of the impact of these limits, see “Upside” Potential.

6 Things That People Get Wrong About Retirement

Retirement planning can be a complicated process – and surveys suggest that most workers haven’t even attempted a guess. But even those who have can overlook some pretty significant factors that can have a dramatic impact on retirement readiness.

Here are some critical factors that are easy to get “wrong.”

The Cost of Inflation

Twenty or 30 years from now, prices are likely to be different than they are today, and for many, those prices will increase – and perhaps particularly costs of critical life aspects like health care. Consider that, overall, the average inflation rate for 2018 was 1.9%. It’s not that all prices will always go up – but they often do, and might increase faster than your income. Think of it as the “magic of compounding’s” evil twin…

There’s a calculator that you might find interesting at http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/.

The Cost of Taxes

A key part of the incentive for retirement saving in a 401(k) is the ability to postpone paying taxes on those salary deferrals. The operative word there is, of course, “postpone.” Sure enough, as those retirement savings are withdrawn in retirement, you can bet that Uncle Sam will be expecting his cut – and on a frequency dictated by the required minimum distribution schedules of the IRS.

In fact, every time I see one of those reports about the average 401(k) account balances of those in their 60s, I can’t help but think that somewhere between 15% and 30%, and perhaps more – won’t go toward financing retirement, but will instead go to Uncle Sam and his state and municiple counterparts.

After all, that’s one of those pre-retirement expenses that doesn’t end at retirement. And, while it may well be at lower rates than when it was deferred pre-tax – it may not be.

The Cost of Long-Term Care

Long-term care is one of those retirement cost variables that can be very complicated to predict – which perhaps explains why the vast majority of retirement needs projections models fail to take it into account (the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s being a notable exception). The data suggests that most of us will have some exposure to this risk – but also suggests that only a minority will get hit with a truly catastrophic bill against their retirement savings.

The question is, which group will you fall within? And can you afford to be wrong? 

What You’ll Get from Social Security

Ask any young worker today about their expectations regarding Social Security, and you’ll likely encounter a fair amount of skepticism; a recent Pew Research report notes that roughly half of Americans (48%) who are younger than 50 expect to receive no Social Security benefits when they retire. Indeed, according to the 2018 Retirement Confidence Survey published by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, today’s workers are almost half as likely to expect Social Security to be a major source of income in retirement (36%) as today’s retirees are to report that Social Security is currently a major source of income (67%).

As things stand today, Social Security’s future is far from certain, though even under a worst case scenario, retirees are likely looking at a reduction, rather than a cessation of benefits. That said, as things stand now, those who retire at full retirement age today would be looking at a maximum of….

When You’ll Retire

Perhaps the most important assumption is when you plan to quit working; today most Americans are doing so at 62, though 65 seems to be the most common assumption – and while using 70 (or later) will surely boost your projected outcomes (it both gives you more time to save, and reduces the time that you will be drawing down those savings), it may not be realistic for many individuals. The 2019 Retirement Confidence Survey found that more than 3 in 10 (34%) workers expect to retire at 70 or beyond or not at all, while only 6% of retirees report this was the case.

In fact, the RCS has consistently found that a large percentage of retirees leave the workforce earlier than planned (43% in the 2019 RCS). Many who retired earlier than planned did so because of a hardship, such as a health problem or disability (35%), and a similar number did so due to changes at their company (35%) – in other words, events not within their control, and likely not foreseeable (admittedly, 33% did so because they could afford to do so).

The bottom line: Even if you plan to work longer, the timing of your “retirement” may not be your choice.

How Long Your Retirement Will Last

Needless to say, the sooner your retirement starts, the longer it might last. But the length of retirement is also a function of what the academics refer to as “longevity,” and what regular people call “life.” 
Indeed, the good news we are living longer – but that means that retirements can last longer, and medical costs can run higher. And while we’re living longer, studies indicate that we tend to underestimate how much longer we will live. The Social Security Administration notes[i]that a man reaching age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 84; a woman turning age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 86.5.

But those are just averages; about one out of every three 65-year-olds today will live past age 90, and one in seven will live past age 95.

Though it’s also worth noting that the averages include a fair number of individuals who won’t make it that “far.”

Ultimately, of course, it’s not what you get wrong about life and retirement – it’s what, and how much, you get right.

 

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

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[i]The Social Security Administration has an online calculator that, based only on gender and birth date (and there are a lot of additional factors to consider), can provide a high-level estimate.

Rising "Tied"

"In inflation, everything gets more valuable except money."

This week, the eyes of the stock market (and thus the eyes of those of us with 401(k) investments in that stock market) will turn to the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—that special subset of the Federal Reserve that determines short-term monetary policy for the nation. The Fed has long—and understandably—been on the alert for signs that inflation might rear its ugly head. Those of us who lived through the 1970s can remember all too well the relentless pressure of wages unable to keep up with prices—and can appreciate the vigilance of the Fed in seeking to keep inflation under control.

In fact, for some time now, the Fed has moved preemptively to head off inflation, or so it claims. But anyone who has actually gone out and bought such basic household necessities as food or gasoline is well aware that the costs of living are climbing rapidly. We may well enjoy a sense of growing wealth as we watch housing prices soar (or did until recently)—but there’s a greater likelihood that you’ve paid dearly for those paper gains in terms of higher property taxes than that you have been able to capitalize on those trends.

Of course the Fed—which is, after all, seeking stability in monetary policy as well as economic growth—deliberately ignores some of the more volatile costs in its evaluation of inflation; notably food and energy.

Still, for those of us who pay to live in the real world, it certainly feels as though inflation—defined by the American Heritage Dictionary as “a persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services”—is alive and well. Little wonder that Social Security recipients wait anxiously each year to find out how much their annual stipend will be adjusted for a “cost-of-living” increase.

However, unlike Social Security, there is no annual cost-of-living “adjustment” for retirement savings—no systematic means by which those accumulated savings are increased to offset the increased costs of things like heating fuel, food, and medicine. Ironically, should the Fed detect the insidious signs of inflation, their response would likely be to increase short-term interest rates—a move that, in all likelihood, would result in a drop in stock prices (and retirement savings accounts).

It’s an issue of more than passing significance for retirement savers, of course. After all, managing to replace a targeted amount of preretirement income is of little consequence if, 10 years on, that amount isn’t sufficient to provide for life’s necessities. To their credit, most retirement savings calculators retain an inflation assumption that can help those future projections reflect potential realities. Those cost-of-living numbers probably understate the increase in things like health care and fuel oil (they may, of course, overstate the rate of increase in other items). Worse, those adjustments frequently serve to project a certain annual rate of pay (and deferral) increase that, for a growing number of American workers, is no more than a quaint anachronism.

Whatever the Fed manages to say about inflation this week, retirement savers should be mindful of the reality that the future frequently costs more than the past—but we only have the present to prepare.

Nevin E. Adams, JD