"Certain" Circumstances

 My wife and I recently celebrated our wedding anniversary—it was a “big” one, one of those that almost takes your breath away thinking about how rich your life together has been.

If someone had asked on my wedding day if I thought I’d still be alive and married this many years hence, I’m sure that I would have expressed confidence, likely strong confidence, in both outcomes. However, if someone on that same day had asked me to guess then where I would be living now, what I would be doing for a living, or what my income would be (or need to be)—well, my responses would likely have been much less certain—and trust me, I would have been… wrong.

Not that there haven’t been bumps along the road—life is a series of zig-zags, after all—and no matter how carefully you try to plan—well, life is what happens to you while you’re making other plans, right? There was the wedding limo with faulty air conditioning on the hottest July day in history, the flat tire in the middle of nowhere with a packed family van (not the best time or place to learn where the “new” jack was located), the emergency appendectomy of a child halfway across the world (not to mention that of another child several hundred miles away at college), the cross-country trip where the rental vehicle had been chosen with an eye toward the size of the family—without taking into account the luggage said family would require for that trip, the “discovery” while trying to rush for a late flight that (apparently) my son’s relatively common name had flagged him for special scrutiny by TSA—and the night spent sleeping in the family van near the Grand Canyon because—sometimes and someplaces you really can’t find a hotel room at the very last minute without a reservation.

As uncertain as life’s paths can be, there is at least some rational science to retirement planning, but even then there’s the unknown as to the “when” you’ll retire, the how much you’ll want—or need—not to mention the “what” you’ll need/want to be able to afford once you’ve crossed that threshold. Not that there aren’t those kind of decisions throughout one’s career—but once that post-work threshold has been crossed—what we still tend to think of as “retirement” (though some might have another word for it these days)—well, it feels like one’s options are fewer, even if they needn’t be.

“Disruptions” are the bane of a fixed income, of course. Just when you think you have it all balanced out, you have to spend (a lot) more for gasoline, pay a higher real estate tax bill, scrape up some money for a new prescription drug, deal with the financial consequences of an unexpected medical emergency. That—despite the experience of the past several months—this can happen at the same time that your investment portfolio is taking a sustained “hit,” or that you are told the house you are living in is worth a lot less than it was (on paper, anyway) a year ago—and all of a “sudden” inflation raises its ugly head—well, it all contributes to a sense of economic uncertainty.

Throw in the gyrations of a global pandemic that can impact not only your employment options, but your portfolio value, and your longevity… well, it’s an environment that can leave one feeling that the notion of living on a “fixed” income might not be up to the task over the next couple of decades—and with some justification.

It’s been said that the only sure things are death and taxes—but the lesson for those of us still drawing a paycheck—and planning for the time when we won’t—is the importance of preparing for that third “sure” thing: uncertainty.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

Hind "Sleights?"

In recent days, we have commemorated both the 50th anniversary of the assassination of President Kennedy, and the 150th anniversary of the Gettysburg Address. Occasions such as these are natural opportunities for us to look back and reflect on the past—to consider what has happened since—and to consider what might have been.

As imperfect as our perception of current events can be, so-called 20/20 hindsight isn’t always what it’s cracked up to be, either. Even for those who were “there,” memories can be shaped or influenced by the passage of time, the perspectives of others, media coverage, and the like.

In the world of employee benefits, if you’ve ever said (or intimated) that traditional pension plans in the private sector were once widespread,¹ that health care insurance exchanges are a new concept,² or that 401(k)s were a legislative “accident” discovered (and promoted) by a single “father”—well then, you’re likely contributing to the confusion about the realities of the past that can obscure an appreciation of the present, and a clearer vision for the future.

Next month we’ll be commemorating EBRI’s 35th anniversary,³ and on Dec. 12 we’ll also be conducting our 73rd policy forum. A series of expert panels will be considering the state of employee benefits—as it was, as it is, and as it is likely to be. We’ll have the perspectives of those who have been directly involved in the development and execution of policies at the dawn of ERISA, who have both negotiated and navigated the subsequent regulatory, operational, and legislative shifts, and futurists who are helping anticipate (and perhaps shape) the next generation of employee benefit plan designs.

Hindsight—insights—foresight. It’s a unique combination. You’ll want to be “there.”

Join us.

The agenda for EBRI’s 73rd policy forum (and registration details) are online here. You can view the recorded webcast HERE. 

Nevin E. Adams, JD

¹ See “The Good Old Days,” online here.

² See “Private Health Insurance Exchanges and Defined Contribution Health Plans: Is It Déjà Vu All Over Again?” online here.

³ For additional insights, see the Fall 2013 EBRI President’s Report from Dallas Salisbury, online here.