For years now, I’ve been saying that the only thing wrong with the 401(k) system is that there aren’t enough of them. And to be fair, the past several years have largely validated that view.
Indeed, Vanguard’s latest How America Saves report paints what is, on the surface anyway, a remarkably encouraging picture. Participation rates among eligible workers are near record highs. Contribution rates rose — 45% of participants increased their savings rate in 2025, contributing to an average savings rate of 12.1%, an all-time high. Professionally managed investments dominate participant portfolios. Most investors ignored market volatility entirely — and, doubtless as a result of all that — account balances reached new highs.
But another recent study suggests that the industry may be misunderstanding what “success” actually looks like.
Morningstar’s paper, Access, Auto-Enrollment, and Accumulation: A Simulation of Universal Retirement Plan Coverage, modeled the impact of automatically enrolling workers without retirement plan access into a federally administered savings arrangement. The results are impressive. Tens of millions of additional workers could enter the retirement system. Hundreds of billions — perhaps more than a trillion dollars — in additional retirement savings could accumulate over time.
But buried deeper in the analysis is a more revealing point — the real breakthrough in retirement outcomes may not be access.
It may be continuity.
The Vanguard report and the Morningstar study actually tell a surprisingly consistent story when viewed together. While Vanguard shows a system increasingly optimized around automation and default behaviors, Morningstar shows that the outcomes of even the best-designed system can be undermined if workers cannot remain continuously connected to savings long enough for compounding to matter.
And that matters. Big time. Particularly in view of the workers most vulnerable to those employment “disconnects;” lower-paid, minorities, women, the young…
Let’s face it. The retirement industry has spent much of the last two decades trying to solve the participation problem. In many respects, it has succeeded. Automatic enrollment, automatic escalation, target-date funds, managed accounts, and payroll deduction have fundamentally changed participant behavior — or perhaps more accurately, reduced the need for participant behavior altogether.
More recently, the focus has shifted toward expanding access to workplace programs — reinforcing how strongly availability, combined with automation, improves savings outcomes — even for workers with modest incomes.
But the Morningstar analysis highlights that workers with long periods of uninterrupted participation saw dramatically larger projected gains than workers with shorter or fragmented savings histories. Automatic enrollment helped. Higher default contribution rates helped somewhat. But it was remaining attached to the system through job changes, financial emergencies, and career transitions — that mattered more than almost anything else. “Workers with 10+ years of sustained participation could see 67% to 125% higher retirement wealth under auto‑enrollment scenarios,” according to the report.
Leakage remains stubbornly high. The number, if not the amount, of hardship withdrawals continues to rise. Cash-outs during job transitions remain common — most particularly in situations where a participant loan is outstanding. Vanguard’s data itself hints at this tension: record balances existing alongside increasing hardship withdrawals. The system has become exceptionally good at getting money into retirement accounts — but still struggles to keep it there when life intervenes.
In other words, the retirement system may be healthier than it has ever been structurally — while on an individual basis many retirement savers remain financially fragile.
That tension becomes even more apparent when looking at which workers benefit most from expanded access proposals. Morningstar found the largest projected gains among lower-income households, younger workers, single women, Hispanic workers, and Black workers — populations historically less likely to have access to employer-sponsored plans.
For years, the policy focus has centered on access: state auto-IRAs, SECURE Act mandates, automatic enrollment requirements, and proposals to expand coverage. Those initiatives matter. They clearly move the needle — and will continue to do so.
But the future success of the defined contribution system may depend less on whether workers can open an account — and more on whether they can stay invested long enough for the system to work as intended.
- Nevin E. Adams, JD
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