Showing posts with label retirement adequacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label retirement adequacy. Show all posts

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Not-So-Unforeseen Outcomes

 Thanks to their mother, my kids have grown up with a variety of pets in our house—but none more bizarre than our experience with… a chicken.

My son’s elementary school class had been exposed to the miracle of life over the course of several weeks by watching a set of chicks spring forth from eggs that had been carefully tended by the class. Once hatched and ready to be turned loose, the teacher offered to let selected children take one home—provided they obtained their parent’s permission, of course. My son was smart enough to ask his mother—who, seeing how much it meant to him—and much to my amazement, acquiesced to the request. 

And so “Grr”[i] entered our lives. Mind you, we were living in a residential neighborhood in Connecticut at the time, miles and miles from anything remotely resembling a farm. That said, the little peeping chick was adorable, and my wife persuaded me that, as the chick grew we’d be able to erect a small pen in the back yard. We even joked about being able to have fresh eggs.

Or did until the day we discovered that Grr was biologically incapable of such things—at which point it was clear that while we had thought things might turn out one way—well, we now had a loud, smelly and fairly aggressive bird in our house! It’s not that this was completely unforeseen, but it certainly didn’t take a lot of imagination to see that it could go “wrong.”

In that spirit, there are a couple of initiatives rumbling around in Congress at the moment—arguably well-intentioned, but almost certainly likely to have consequences that are not unforeseeable, though surely not what their champions expect or intend. 

The first of these is an initiative focused on expanding spousal consent—not the beneficiary designation requirement in place since the mid-1980s, but one that would basically require an in-person notarized consent for most distributions. The second revolves around discussions to significantly expand the size and flexibility of emergency savings accounts. 


‘Missed’ Directions

The expanded spousal consent provision is well-intentioned, of course. Much as the beneficiary designation requirement, it is designed to prevent one spouse from taking advantage of the other by wiping out what might well be their life savings without their knowledge or involvement. On the other hand, it doesn’t require much imagination to, in a day when men and women are about equally likely to have a 401(k), envision a situation where an abused spouse, needing to access the funds in their account to escape their situation, would be precluded by this legislation from doing so by the very spouse they are seeking to escape.[ii]

Now as for those emergency savings accounts—while the notion is quite popular these days—the problem lies with an idea being touted by the Aspen Institute. It would establish a sidecar emergency savings account with your 401(k) that could be matched—but that you could basically withdraw for pretty much any reason once you got the match. More on that in a minute.

Now, emergencies come in all shapes and sizes—but the Aspen proposal is calling for $5,000 in those accounts (rather than the $1,000 embodied in legislation such as The Enhancing Emergency and Retirement Savings Act of 2021—and they’re suggesting it as $5,000 every year. Five thousand dollars that could be put in the “emergency” savings account every year (just) long enough to get the match—and then, as mentioned above—withdrawn for pretty much any reason whatsoever. And then the next year they could do it all over again. And again. In fact, it doesn’t require a lot of imagination to see this turning into one of those “Christmas Club” savings accounts that banks offered once upon a time. Which arguably stands to create a whole other type of emergency: retirement plan “leakage”—on steroids.

You don’t need 20/20 hindsight to know that bringing a chick into a suburban Connecticut home won’t end well. We did it with a genuine desire to do something nice for our son—and hoped in our hearts that it would turn out differently than our brains would acknowledge. It didn’t, of course—but it turned out to be a situation that didn’t last long, and—thanks to a farm-owning colleague—had a (relatively) happy ending.

Something that ill conceived legislation, however well intentioned—can’t—and shouldn’t—depend upon. Particularly when the potential negative outcomes are… not so unforeseen.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD


[i] While the name eventually seemed to fit his personality, my son simply chose to name it after a favorite character in the “Invader Zim” cartoon series.

[ii] The good news is that the champions of this legislation have decided to study the matter and its potential implications under the auspices of the Government Accountability Office.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

‘End’ Adequate? Are We Getting an Accurate Read on Retirement Readiness?

The title of a new report by the Society of Actuaries poses an intriguing question: “Retirement Adequacy in the United States: Should We Be Concerned?”

When all is said and done, the answer from the report’s authors seems to be “it depends.”

And, as it turns out, it depends on a lot of things: who is asking the question, who you are asking the question about, and what you think the answer should be. And that doesn’t even take into account the questions about the assumptions one makes to come up with the answers.

The SOA report draws some conclusions:
  • The current system of voluntary employment-based retirement plans has been largely successful from the perspective of companies sponsoring plans for individuals with long-term employment covered by such plans.
  • The mandatory Social Security system has done much to reduce poverty in old age, though adequacy studies using replacement ratios may overstate the success of this safety net for those in the lowest-income groups, because too many rely solely on Social Security as their sole source of support. Moreover, for households that don’t have access to employer-sponsored retirement plans, Social Security alone will not allow them to maintain their preretirement standard of living.
  • There is a need for future research that delves into the retirement challenges of particularly vulnerable populations, such as those who are widowed, divorced, long-term disabled or long-term unemployed.
But when it comes to answering the question posed in the title – well, the report’s authors concede that “significant differences in methodologies that are used in retirement adequacy research makes direct comparisons of results more difficult.” Specifically that most studies:1
  • do not adequately account for major unexpected expenses or shocks, such as poor investment performance, long-term care, death of a spouse and unexpected out-of-pocket medical expenses;
  • assume that the adequacy objective is to maintain pre-retirement living standards (surveys indicate retirees are willing to live more conservatively);
  • assume that people retire at a “normal” retirement age; and
  • differ significantly in their treatment of housing wealth (if housing wealth is accessible to meet retirement needs, overall adequacy is higher).
The report also offered some cautionary notes, specifically that:
  • You need to consider the source(s). “Different stakeholder groups are asking different questions, offering different solutions and measuring success in different ways.”
  • Reliance on replacement ratios can be misleading. While they are easily explained, can be compared over time, and may be used for individuals, groups of individuals or the entire retiree population, “there is no universally agreed-upon definition or consensus on what constitutes an adequate replacement ratio or on how to adjust for differences in individual circumstances.”
  • Post-retirement spending patterns can, and do, vary. Lifetime spending needs are also highly dependent on the length of the retirement period, changes that occur over time and whether a household experiences a spending shock during retirement. On the one hand, focus group and survey data show that most retirees are frugal and are satisfied with a lower standard of living in retirement than what is considered adequate in most research studies. However, large expense shocks “have a significant negative effect on retiree finances,” and many models ignore those impacts.
Ultimately, they conclude that some studies conclude that there is a retirement crisis in the United States and while others conclude that the system is in good shape – inconsistent outcomes that the authors say can be shown to be due to differences in research objectives, methodology, assumptions, definition of adequacy and population studied.

“The truth is that our retirement system has both successes and failures.”

Here’s to maximizing the first, and whittling away at the second – and not getting distracted by headlines in the meantime.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD
 
Footnote
  1. However inconsistent current reports are, things might be worse when it comes to considering the current state versus future retirements. The report notes that many of the current studies fail to take into account the impact of changes in retirement ages, phased retirement and work during retirement. And that most studies focus on the retirement adequacy of current and near retirees, although retirees of the future may face more difficulty than today’s retirees “because of demographic issues, high debt load, lower likelihood of being married and owning a home, potential future reforms to Social Security, shifts in employment, and changes in the structure of employee benefit plans.”