Showing posts with label glide path. Show all posts
Showing posts with label glide path. Show all posts

Saturday, December 13, 2025

'Inside' Straits

 A recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article asked what I view as a rhetorical question; “Do you really know what’s inside your 401(k)?” Rhetorical in that I suspect the answer from most people — certainly if they’re honest — is “no.”

Now there are many aspects to a 401(k) that bear scrutiny, but the article was focused on target-date funds (TDFs) — a mechanism that I think has been a boon for most of the novice investors (and savers) that I suspect most 401(k) participants (still) are.

You check one box (heck, these days that box is checked for you) and tap into the expertise — and ongoing expertise at that — of professional money managers to provide your retirement savings with a diversified portfolio mix. No longer do you have to concern yourself with weightings of stocks and bonds, value versus growth, domestic versus international — just leave it to the experts. 


But the WSJ article’s focus was a cautionary note — mostly concerned at the unexpected things that a collective investment trust (CIT) vehicle (now 52% of all TDF assets, according to the article) might open the door to — specifically alternative investments, notably so-called “private investments.” Which, the article points out, might undermine the cost advantages of the CIT with those alternative holdings that are more expensive, less transparent/readily valued, and illiquid.

Indeed, the author goes so far as to comment, “As far as the managers of private assets are concerned, the ‘target’ in target-date funds is you.” Of course, his concern is that the less rigorous reporting requirements of a CIT (compared to a mutual fund) would allow investors to be taken advantage of — as though they’re actually even skimming that mutual fund prospectus.

Let’s face it — target-date funds with all their simplicity (at least in the choosing) and promise have been pitched as a “do it for you” solution, and tens of millions of (too) busy, preoccupied participants have trusted their retirement savings to these vehicles assuming that the professional investment class — not to mention the plan sponsor fiduciaries that screened them — know what they’re doing.

Unfortunately, in some cases, that trust may have been misplaced.

ad space

Something not mentioned in the WSJ article is that most of the manufacturers of those vehicles several years back embraced a “through” retirement date glide path, rather than the “to” retirement date that was the original “pitch.” The latter meaning that you’d gradually move to a much more conservative asset mix at your projected retirement date. And while there is still certainly a modest shift in that direction, the shift in emphasis means that I suspect there are a lot of folks nearing retirement that have a portfolio mix that is significantly more exposed to stocks than they might expect and/or want.[i]

Some of this shift is, doubtless, a sense that individuals want to stay invested in those funds, irrespective of retirement date.[ii] Some doubtless a desire to report better returns, since I suspect most fiduciaries are (still) paying more attention to the current returns than the conceptual integrity of the glidepath.

Regardless, it is, to my eyes, anyway, a shift from the original premise — and one that I suspect many participants haven’t noticed, and one on which plan fiduciaries may not have focused. The inclusion of alternative investments (particularly when folks are talking about 20% allocations) is one thing — but the structural glide path of these options, particularly when positioned as a default investment, strikes me as even more fundamental.

That said, and as the WSJ article closes, “None of this means you should turn your back on these funds, which can give you a powerful boost toward a sustainable retirement. It does mean you’ll need to know what you own and speak up if you don’t like it. The ultimate hands-off investment is going to require you to be a lot more hands-on.”

I would say that goes double for those responsible for the selection and monitoring of these plan options.

  • Nevin E. Adams, JD

 


[i] Note — not saying that the shift in glidepath focus isn’t legit, or even beneficial — it just seems that most folks probably missed that “memo.”

[ii] Cynics might even suggest that the shift is a function of TDF managers simply wanting to keep hold of that money all the way through the individual’s retirement, rather than handing it over to a different manager. 

Saturday, February 22, 2020

After the Fall

I’ve just passed the fifth anniversary of a small fall that took a big chunk out of my life.

It was one of those little things – carrying that last box of Christmas ornaments to the basement for storage – when, just three steps from the bottom, I missed one. All I could think about in the 2 seconds it took me to tumble to the ground was trying not to fall on the ornaments (it was the last box, but who knew what precious memories were in that one?) – though that focus completely disappeared once I hit the floor.

The ornaments, as it turned out, were safe. My left ankle, not so much.

The next several weeks were discouragingly inconvenient when it came to navigating stairs, opening doors (even the ones that are ostensibly designed to accommodate such things), and – worst of all – showering. But perhaps the most frustrating was my rehab stint. I would not have thought it was possible in the space of just 8 weeks to forget how to walk – and yet, I found myself struggling (mind you, I was in a boot). To this day, I don’t descend a flight of stairs without a shudder running up my spine.

The fall, as falls often are, was fast and unexpected – the recovery long and painful.

At a time when the markets continue to stake out new highs on weekly, it is perhaps unseemly to recall that they can, and do, move in the opposite direction. While participants, generally speaking, appear to ride out such storms, those who sell low and buy high inevitably seem to outnumber those who view the downturns as buying opportunities. That said, in 2019 the S&P 500 rose more than 28% – and the average 401(k) balance – buttressed not only by the markets, but by contributions – ended the year 44.9% higher for those workers aged 25-34 with less than 4 years of tenure, while workers with more than 20 years of tenure, aged 55-64, registered a 24.6% increase, according to estimates by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI).

Indeed, just last week I read that a major target-date fund provider was boosting the equity allocation in its glide paths… explicitly to help deliver improved outcomes. Nor is it the only one to have done so (see Missing the Target). Those moves, ostensibly informed by economic insights and research, are perhaps tempted by the long-running bull market (and doubtless aware that, despite all the cautions to the contrary, that investors – and plan fiduciaries – are often drawn by past performance like moths to a flame).

Now, our industry has long cautioned savers that you can’t invest your way out of a savings shortfall, though surely improving outcomes is a shared goal. Not that it isn’t a tempting recourse – certainly for those who are awakening to financial realities late in their working years. These days the trend is to embrace glidepaths that sail “through” the stated age of retirement (“through” rather than “to”[i]), though one can’t help but wonder if those defaulted onto those paths are cognizant of the difference. Or if, as was the case a bit more than a decade ago, those on the brink of retirement will discover that there can be a significant gap between a glidepath that is “more” conservative, and one that truly lives up to that description.

Because, after all, falls are often unexpected. The recovery slow and painful.

- Nevin E. Adams, JD

[i] Though the 62nd Annual Survey of Profit-Sharing and 401(k) Plans from the Plan Sponsor Council of America found a rough 50-50 split among respondents between those relying on target-date fund glidepaths that are “to” versus “through” retirement.