Showing posts with label behavorial finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label behavorial finance. Show all posts

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Making a List

Believe it or not, PLANADVISER Magazine is five years old this year.

As such, we wanted to commemorate our fifth anniversary by recognizing as “legends” five individuals who had made a “significant personal impact to the retirement plan industry and the advisers who support it”.

Now, perhaps you think that would be easy—but I can promise you it’s harder than it looks. And over the past several weeks we have gone through our list—moving some off, bringing others on, and “sleeping on it” more nights than you might think.

First off, we limited the list to five individuals (for five years), and we also tried to focus in on the past five years. Limiting the list to five was hard enough (certainly once we got started), but trying to focus in on the period since we launched the magazine created an even more daunting task. Sure, it was “only” five years ago, but it’s amazing how much has happened during that time. That was the year the Pension Protection Act was signed into law, after all, not to mention the year that the first wave of revenue-sharing lawsuits was filed, and the year that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), responding in the aftermath of the mutual fund trading scandal, introduced rule 22c-2. In fact, the cover story of the first issue of PLANADVISER was titled simply, “Now What?”.

When it came to compiling that list, however, while some names were, IMHO, obvious,
some were perhaps “too” obvious. There are those who have had an impact, albeit a controversial one, while others have arguably had an impact, but one that is softer, quieter, or perhaps simply not as pervasive as others.

The discipline of a finite list forces you to make tough choices, but it also inevitably leaves you wanting to create a list that is longer, and perhaps more inclusive, if only to give full recognition to the many professionals who have had—and continue to have—that “significant personal impact.” That said, we have chosen five individuals.

They come up in conversation with advisers all the time, and for good reason.
They are people we have watched and are watching—and people who bear watching in the years to come.

They are, quite simply, legends—and on Tuesday we’ll “introduce” them to you.

—Nevin E. Adams, JD

The PLANADVISER “legends” will be featured in the fifth anniversary issue of PLANADVISER and will be honored at our annual Awards for Excellence celebration in New York City on March 24. At that event, along with sister publication PLANSPONSOR, we will also be honoring our Retirement Plan Advisers and Adviser Teams of the Year, as well as our Plan Sponsors of the Year, as well as other retirement industry luminaries.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Group “Think”

Somewhere over the course of your academic or professional career, I’m sure you’ve been exposed to a group exercise dealing with being stranded in an inhospitable place (the moon, or maybe a deserted island) with a limited amount of supplies, and a limited amount of time to choose from those supplies to ensure your survival.

In these exercises, you’re asked to make those picks as an individual exercise, and then put together with a group to make group choices. Not only are the group choices generally different, they are nearly always “better” (more likely to ensure survival) than those made by individuals. The point of the exercise is, of course, that we make better decisions working together as a team than we do trying to make them on our own—and it generally works out that way.

Sure, that may work in hypothetical situations where none of the group members has any particular expertise. But if I’ve crash-landed on the moon, and there’s a trained astronaut in the group—well, let’s just say you’re probably better off following their lead than putting things up for a vote.

That said, to me, the point of that exercise isn’t necessarily that group decisions are better than individuals’—they frequently aren’t, IMHO—but that groups we are part of make different decisions than we might as individuals.


Now, sometimes that inures to our benefit. There is certainly value in a collective experience/perspective, and there is an important collaborative element in just being able to bounce ideas off other people. Moreover, there are times when individual members of the group have knowledge and/or expertise that everyone doesn’t have. And let’s face it—plan sponsors make a lot of individual decisions, but even relatively small employers are inclined to rely on the collective experience of a group when it comes to making plan design and investment decisions. That’s supposed to make for better decisions but, as any retirement plan adviser can attest, not always.

Behavioral finance purports to explain why people make the financial choices they do, choices that are frequently at odds with what “rational” decisionmaking would support. In recent years, a lot of attention and focus have been directed toward behavioral finance, particularly as it applies to participant decisionmaking or the lack thereof (in fact, thus far most of those behavioral finance-oriented solutions – automatic enrollment, contribution acceleration, QDIAs - have been directed not toward helping participants make better choices, but rather toward making better choices for the participants).

In fact, in the cover story of the January issue of PLANSPONSOR, Gary Mottola, Associate Director of Investor Education at the Washington-based Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), observes: “Plan sponsors are very aware of the biases that affect individuals, but I do not think a lot of sponsors are aware of these biases” that can affect them. Plan sponsors make most of their decisions in groups and committees, so they are vulnerable to both group and individual biases.”

What kinds of biases? Well, there are things like “shared-information bias,” where groups tend to focus on things of common knowledge/interest, even if it isn’t the most pertinent/critical. My favorite is “group polarization,” which speaks to a group’s tendency to make more-extreme decisions—both in cautious and risky directions—than individuals. In essence, the group tends to reinforce its own prejudices—and then some.

Even the best committees can make bad decisions, not because they aren’t well-intentioned, or even well-equipped to make complex financial decisions, but because they may make decisions based on dynamics of which they aren’t even aware.

What’s ironic, IMHO, is how intertwined the acknowledgement of such behaviors has become in thoughtful plan designs—and yet how infrequently we acknowledge their impact on those who make the complex financial decisions that affect the participant decisions.


- Nevin E. Adams, JD

Check out “Misbehavioral Finance

Saturday, April 17, 2010

“Different” Strokes

Having been born in the Midwest, lived a quarter of my life in the South, and now another sixth in the Northeast, I can tell you—people are different. However, having worked for huge firms and considerably smaller ones, I can also tell you that, when people come together in groups, they are not as different as you might think (or hope, as the case may be).

There is a “common wisdom” in our business that suggests that all plan sponsors are, more or less, alike; that large plans are the inevitable early adopters of trends that, sooner or later, trickle down to plans of all sizes. Consequently, those who make their living trying to discern trends and patterns frequently focus on the behaviors in evidence at larger programs—figuring that, in three years or so, those same characteristics will emerge across the spectrum.

There’s some logic to that perspective, IMHO. Plan fiduciaries frequently draw comfort and solace from the experience of others, and smaller programs can hardly be faulted for adopting plan designs and approaches that have been “vetted” by programs with more copious resources. Moreover, providers frequently introduce innovations with price tags that initially discourage smaller-program adoption (at least until later iterations are included as part of the “package”).

That said, I have always found it dangerously simplistic to assume that small plans will, inevitably, follow along eventually in the footsteps of their larger cousins.

"Less" Likely

Consider that smaller programs—let’s use $5 million in assets and less (though some would carve even that in half)—are significantly less likely to have adopted automatic enrollment than those with more than $200 million; in PLANSPONSOR’s DC survey, only about one in five small plans had done so, compared with more than half of larger plans. Now, a goodly number of those smaller plans already had safe harbor designs in place, so had no “need” of automatic enrollment. In fact, one could argue that the safe harbor design is a kind of automatic enrollment. Smaller programs were also much less likely to have a contribution acceleration design in place (just 8.7% compared with about a third of larger programs).

PLANSPONSOR’s Annual DC Survey, which captures the perspectives of some 6,000 plans, found that smaller programs were more likely to make participants wait to vest in employer contributions, and only half as likely to have embraced immediate vesting—differences that admittedly might be predicated on economic considerations.

Only about half of smaller programs had an investment policy statement (IPS) in place, compared with nearly nine of 10 among larger programs. Perhaps not surprisingly, smaller plans reviewed their plan investments much less frequently (49% said annually, the most common response, while more than half of larger plans did so quarterly). They were also less likely to review fees regularly—and much more likely to “never” review them (one in 10).

Consider also that smaller programs were less likely to have adopted a target-date (TDF) solution as a default (28.6% versus roughly two-thirds among larger plans); though, even among smaller programs, target-dates were the predominant default fund choice. They were, however, more likely to be unsure that TDFs were the “best” QDIA option (44%), and more likely to doubt that their recordkeeper was offering the “most appropriate” TDF option.

"More" So

Investment performance was significantly more important to smaller plans, and fee transparency was also noticeably, if modestly, so. Things like financial strength, market image/reputation, and recognizable “brand name” funds stood out in their ranking of preferred provider attributes. However, when it came to things like participant service, reasonable fees, and provider Web site, there was no apparent difference at all.

Smaller programs were more likely to offer advice, and MUCH more likely to offer advice via an adviser outside the plan. Smaller plan sponsors were significantly more focused on the quality of advice to plan participants than larger programs, more worried about the reasonableness of fees, and placed less emphasis on adviser independence but greater emphasis on the ability to negotiate on behalf of the plan than did larger programs.

Of course, the service criteria are expressed in relative, not absolute, terms. That certain aspects were more important to smaller plans does not mean that others were unimportant. However, for those who work with and/or focus on smaller programs, those differences can be significant.

After all, we may all be alike—but that doesn’t mean we’re all the same.

—Nevin E. Adams, JD

Saturday, January 23, 2010

"Talking" Points

A little different take this week - or at least different medium.

This talking points podcast is with me, where I talk about the results of our annual Defined Contribution Survey – and the things to keep an eye on for 2010.

You can listen to it HERE

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Domino Theories

If you want to get a quick sense of just how fast time flies, consider that it was only a year ago this week that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy—the same day that Bank of America announced its plans to acquire Merrill Lynch, and a day on which, not surprisingly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down just over 500 points. That, in turn, was just a day before the Fed authorized an $85 billion loan to AIG—and that on the same day that the net asset value of shares in the Reserve Primary Money Fund “broke the buck.” This was made all the more surreal because it was going on while we—and several hundred advisers—were in the middle of our PLANADVISER National Conference.

Let’s face it—no matter how busy or hectic your week has been, I’m betting it’s been a walk in the park compared to those times.

The funny thing is, looking back (and armed with the prism of 20/20 hindsight), there were lots of signs of the trouble that eventually cascaded like a set of dominos, resetting not only the structures of the financial services industry, but disrupting the businesses and lives of thousands (if not tens of thousands) of advisers, not to mention the retirement plans of millions of workers worldwide.

The question that many of us have been asking ourselves (or perhaps been asked by our clients) these past 12 months is—why didn’t we do something about it?

Now, doubtless, some of you did. And those of you who didn’t can hardly—IMHO—be faulted for not fully appreciating the breadth, and severity, of the financial crisis we “suddenly” found ourselves confronted with. Still, having lived through a number of other “bubbles” during the course of my career, “afterwards” I’m always wondering why so many wait so long—generally too long—to get out of the way.

“Way” Laid?

Greed explains some of it: As human beings, we may later disparage the motives of those that, with leverage and avarice, press markets to unsustainable heights (from which they inevitably fall)—though we are frequently willing to go along for the ride. Some may be explained by human proclivity to stay with the pack, even when it seems destined for trouble, and some surely by nothing more than an inability to recognize the portents that precede the coming fall. When it comes to retirement plan participants, mere inertia surely accounts for most, though some are doubtless waylaid by bad, or inattentive, counsel.

There is, of course, a behavioral finance theory called “prospect theory,” that claims that human beings value gains and losses differently; that we are more afraid of loss than optimistic about gain. An extension of that theory, the “disposition effect,” claims to explain our tendency to hold on to losing investments too long: to avoid acknowledging our investing mistakes by actually selling them. It is, IMHO, an attribute rationalized every time someone says that the losses in our portfolios are “unrealized.” Unfortunately for investors planning for their retirement, unrealized and unreal are NOT the same thing.(1)

We all know that markets move up AND down, of course, and we must do the things we do without the benefit of a crystal clear view of what lies just over the horizon. That said, as we approach the anniversary of the 2008 tumult, it seems a good time to ask: Are you looking out for trouble—as well as opportunity?

—Nevin E. Adams, JD

(1) That said, the markets have, in recent months, recovered a lot of ground. The S&P 500 index is up more than 50%—if one looks back only to its March 2009 lows. On the other hand, that index is still down a third from its 2007 peak, still 20% lower than it was a year ago. Recovery takes a long time.